NHL EDGE stats: Bruins, Blues outlooks after coaching changes

NHL.com’s fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we look at the coaching changes for the Boston Bruins and St. Louis Blues.

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There have been two NHL coaching changes this season, and both were connected because Jim Montgomery, who was fired by the Boston Bruins and replaced by Joe Sacco, was then hired by the St. Louis Blues, who fired Drew Bannister, only five days later.

While each situation has a small sample size, both moves have positively impacted the teams; the Bruins are 3-1-0 through their first four games under Sacco, while the Blues are 2-0-0 through their first two games under Montgomery. Here are some of the most telling advanced metrics surrounding the impacted players and each team’s outlook for the rest of the season:

Boston Bruins (from Jim Montgomery to Joe Sacco)

The Bruins have reached the Stanley Cup Playoffs in eight straight seasons, tied with the Toronto Maple Leafs for the longest active streak in the NHL. There was every expectation for Boston to make it back to the postseason given the returning staple of veterans in forwards David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand and defenseman Charlie McAvoy, as well as the free agent additions of center Elias Lindholm and defenseman Nikita Zadorov.

However, the Bruins’ inconsistent start to the season (8-9-3 through 20 games) led to the firing of Montgomery, who was less than two seasons removed from winning the Jack Adams Award as the League’s top coach in 2022-23, when Boston set single-season NHL records for wins (65) and standings points (135).

Sacco was then tasked to make immediate improvements for Boston, which was averaging the second-fewest goals per game (2.40), tied for fifth-most goals allowed per game (3.45), ranked worst on the power play (11.7 percent) and eighth-worst on the penalty kill (75.6 percent) at the time of the coaching change.

Boston’s dominant prior two regular seasons were built on generating offense and stifling defense close to the net. Per NHL EDGE stats, the Bruins ranked seventh in high-danger shots on goal (713; 8.70 per game) last season, scoring 20.9 percent of the time on high-danger attempts (149; tied for sixth). Forwards Charlie Coyle (22 high-danger shots on goal; 98th percentile), Pastrnak (18; 94th percentile), Marchand (16; 91st percentile) and Pavel Zacha (15; 88th percentile) each ranked among the leaders in that category and remains on Boston’s roster this season.

While the Bruins are still generating a high volume of chances in front of their opponent’s net, ranking seventh again in high-danger shots on goal this season (183), they have only scored on 15.8 percent of those attempts. Boston’s shooting percentage from high-danger locations is the fourth lowest in the League, ahead of only the Calgary Flames (15.1 percent), Philadelphia Flyers (14.5 percent) and Colorado Avalanche (14.1 percent) entering Friday. Coyle, Pastrnak, Marchand and Zacha have combined for 13 high-danger goals on 80 shots on goal (16.3 percent) this season.

Boston generated 66 more high-danger shots on goal than they allowed last season (647 total high-danger SOG allowed; 7.89 per game) and had arguably the NHL’s best goaltending tandem in Jeremy Swayman (.804 high-danger save percentage) and Linus Ullmark (.822 high-danger save percentage); both ranked well above the league average (.788) in stopping the puck from those prime scoring areas. This season, the Bruins allowed more than eight high-danger shots on goal eight times in their first 20 games of the season. After Ullmark was traded to the Ottawa Senators in the offseason, Swayman (.707 high-danger save percentage) has underperformed so far this season. After ranking third in team save percentage last season (.912), the Bruins are 22nd in that category this season (.888).

The Bruins had the seventh-worst 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage (47.4 percent) at the time Sacco took over but are seventh in that category since (54.1 percent). The Bruins have outscored their opponents 6-2 on high-danger shots on goal in four games since the coaching change while allowing a total of 12 high-danger shots on goal (3.00 per game) under Sacco, a huge improvement from their prior performance this season (6.90 high-danger SOG allowed per game over first 20 games under Montgomery).

While Swayman needs to be better against high-danger shots on goal, he has been strong against the shots he should stop. He has faced 100 long-range shots without allowing a single goal (1.000 long-range save percentage). The only other goalie to stop at least 100 long-range shots without allowing a single goal is Filip Gustavsson of the Minnesota Wild (103 saves, 1.000 save percentage on long-range shots).

With Boston’s power play still at the bottom of the NHL (12.4 percent), Sacco is also looking to help his best players, Pastrnak, Marchand and McAvoy, get their seasons back on track. A potential X-factor for the Bruins with the man-advantage is Lindholm, who has one high-danger goal on 18 high-danger shots on goal so far this season but scored a power-play goal in Sacco's coaching debut against the Utah Hockey Club on Nov. 21.

Lindholm had his best season with the Calgary Flames in 2021-22 (NHL career-high 42 goals, 82 points), ranking among the best in shots on goal (92; 95th percentile) and goals (17; 92nd percentile) from high-danger areas. It’s worth noting the Bruins have four of the five players with the highest ice time averages on the power play this season: Washington Capitals forward Alex Ovechkin (4:39) is the only player across the League playing more minutes than Pastrnak (4:34), Marchand (4:11), Lindholm (4:09) and McAvoy (4:07) with the man advantage.

Despite the Bruins struggling on both ends of the ice prior to the coaching change, they entered the Thanksgiving break in postseason position (third place in the Atlantic Division). Although they have played low-scoring hockey through the first four games under Sacco (outscored opponents 2.25 to 1.50 on average), their offense and Swayman have high enough ceilings for them to re-emerge as a sneaky Stanley Cup contender if they improve in key areas before the stretch run and postseason. -- Troy Perlowitz

St. Louis Blues (Drew Bannister to Jim Montgomery)

The Blues, who won the Stanley Cup in 2019 but have missed the past two postseasons, fired Bannister after just 76 games (39-31-6 record) and brought back Montgomery, who was an assistant coach in St. Louis under former coach Craig Berube from 2020-21 to 2021-22.

Montgomery’s 112 wins led the NHL over his first two regular seasons with the Bruins (2022-23 to 2023-24), but they were upset in the Eastern Conference First Round in 2023, lost in the second round last postseason and had an underwhelming start to this season (8-9-3). Montgomery is familiar with many players on the St. Louis roster, an advantage most new coaches don’t have. The Blues had a 109-point season in 2021-22 (third-highest regular-season point total in their history) when Montgomery was their assistant.

The Blues, who were 9-12-1 (19 points) and outside of playoff position in the Western Conference this season under Bannister, were averaging the third-fewest goals per game (2.36), fourth-fewest shots per game (26.2) and had the eighth-worst power play (16.7 percent). St. Louis had losses in seven of nine games prior to the firing and was allowing the 10th-most high-danger shots on goal (124 in 22 games; 5.6 per game) under Bannister.

Montgomery won his debut, 5-2 on the road against the New York Rangers on Monday, with St. Louis tying its season-high for goals in a game. It was the first time they scored more than three goals since Nov. 2 (11-game span). They also had a season-high 44 shots on goal in the win, only their second time with 40-plus SOG in a game this season.

Montgomery won his second game 3-0 at the New Jersey Devils, thanks to a 31-save shutout from goalie Jordan Binnington; it was just the fourth loss by the Devils in their past 14 games. Per NHL EDGE stats, Binnington has faced the fifth-most shots on goal (491), eighth-most high-danger SOG (118) and tied for the ninth-most midrange SOG (127).

The Blues tandem of Binnington (7-9-1) and Joel Hofer (4-3-0) ranks in the middle of the pack in team save percentage (.892; 19th). Montgomery could move toward a two-goalie split like he had in Boston with Swayman and Ullmark; Hofer was 15-12-1 with a .913 save percentage last season and could earn himself more playing time moving forward. The Blues were ninth worst in 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage under Bannister (48.0 percent in first 22 games of season) and are at 39.9 percent in two games since the coaching change, but their goalies have been better (.957 save percentage at 5-on-5; fourth in NHL).

When Montgomery took over, the Blues had allowed the eighth-most goals per game (3.36), the 12th-most shots per game (29.2) and had the ninth-worst penalty kill (75.9). Over Montgomery’s two-plus seasons with the Bruins, they allowed the fewest goals per game (2.50) and had the second-best penalty kill (83.9), and Montgomery can help the Blues in both areas.

St. Louis has the fourth-worst power play (14.8) this season, and forward Pavel Buchnevich, who leads the Blues with five power-play points, said his goalies have to stop a ton of shots every game and that the offense is their biggest issue.

“It’s impossible to win with one and two goals. Just impossible,” Buchnevich said.

The Blues were without their top scorer, forward Robert Thomas (leads St. Louis with 0.83 points per game; 10 points in 12 games), for 12 games because of a fractured ankle. Thomas had NHL career highs in goals (26), assists (60), points (86), power-play points (27), shots on goal (170) and average ice time (20:58 per game) last season and should boost the offense over time.

Jordan Kyrou led the Blues in goals last season (31) and leads them in points (19), shots on goal (67) and is tied with Jake Neighbours for their goal lead (seven); he’s averaged 31.6 goals over his past three seasons. Per NHL EDGE stats, Kyrou leads the League in midrange shots on goal (39) and ranks in the 90th percentile in 20-plus mile per hour speed bursts (50).

Another wrinkle for the Blues is defenseman Philip Broberg (knee), who has been out since Nov. 2 but is nearing a return. Per NHL EDGE stats, Broberg ranks among the leaders in top skating speed (23.28 mph; 98th percentile; sixth highest among defensemen) and could help the Blues improve their power play if he’s elevated to the first unit under Montgomery.

Two other EDGE standouts who could be crucial to a potential Blues turnaround include forwards Brayden Schenn, who ranks in the 92nd percentile in midrange shots on goal (22), and Dylan Holloway, whose top shot speed (97.99; 99th percentile) is second among NHL forwards behind Tage Thompson of the Buffalo Sabres (104.69 mph). Broberg and Holloway were acquired from the Edmonton Oilers via successful offer sheets in the offseason. Holloway has four points (two goals, two assists) in two games under Montgomery and could see an expanded role and far greater production compared to his usage under Bannister.

The Blues (11-12-1, 23 points) may not have the elite players to compete with some of the high-powered offenses in the Central Division, but they are only two points back of the Vancouver Canucks for the final Western Conference Wild Card spot as of the Thanksgiving break. If Montgomery can help St. Louis clean up its defense and special teams, it could certainly tilt the scale and get the Blues back to the playoffs. -- Chris Meaney

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More: NHL EDGE stats for Bruins

NHL EDGE stats for Blues