NHL EDGE stats: Sleeper teams for 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we look at the advanced metrics behind three sleeper teams that could have staying power as contenders for the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Detroit Red Wings

The Red Wings rank second in the NHL in high-danger shots on goal (247) behind the Dallas Stars (249) and second in long-range shots on goal (201) behind the Carolina Hurricanes (213). Detroit is also sixth in 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage (52.8), a strong indicator of a team's staying power as a postseason contender.

Captain Dylan Larkin leads Detroit in high-danger shots on goal (38; tied for ninth in entire NHL) and ranks just ahead of teammate Alex DeBrincat (36; 98th percentile). DeBrincat, who ranks highly in high-danger goals (eight; 96th percentile), also ranks tied for sixth in the NHL in midrange shots on goal (38). Detroit’s defense is led by workhorse Moritz Seider, who ranks fourth in the entire NHL in total skating distance (98.42 miles) and sixth in 5-on-5 shot attempts differential (plus-148). Detroit, when healthy, also has plenty of speed; the Red Wings rank 11th in the NHL in 20-plus mph speed bursts (620).

The X-factor for the Red Wings is their goaltending; although offseason addition John Gibson ranks highly in 5-on-5 save percentage in close situations (.929; 77th percentile), Detroit’s tandem has been inconsistent and ranks fifth worst in team save percentage (.873).

Pittsburgh Penguins

The resurgent Penguins, led by generational forward Sidney Crosby, are three points behind the Metropolitan Division-leading Hurricanes under new coach Dan Muse. Crosby ranks among the NHL leaders in both high-danger goals (10; 98th percentile) and high-danger shots on goal (27; 93rd percentile), and Pittsburgh, as a team, ranks 13th in high-danger shots on goal (210).

The Penguins lead the NHL in power-play percentage (33.3) and are 5-0-0 in games in which they score multiple power-play goals. They also rank highly in offensive zone time percentage at all strengths (41.5; ninth) and even strength (41.5; seventh) despite a long injury absence for forward Rickard Rakell, who ranked 10th in high-danger goals (22) last season.

In addition to high-scoring veteran forwards in Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, defenseman Erik Karlsson continues to have elite advanced metrics. The 35-year-old ranks highly among defensemen in max skating speed (23.39; 99th percentile; fifth at position), 20-plus mph speed bursts (48; 97th percentile), hardest shot (96.64; 94th percentile) and midrange shots on goal (12; 90th percentile).

On the power play, the Penguins rank sixth in “Projected Goal Rate” (PGR), an NHL EDGE IQ metric used to estimate the likelihood of an inference shot attempt (excludes shots taken from outside of 60 feet or beyond the goal line, and empty-net situations) becoming a goal based on the quality of the attempt. With the recent return of experienced goalie Tristan Jarry, along with efficient rookies Arturs Silovs and Sergei Murashov, the Penguins are quietly tied for sixth in team save percentage (.904) and have a by-committee approach to sustaining their strong start.

San Jose Sharks

The Sharks have been one of the NHL’s most-improved teams this season, led by their young trio: forwards Macklin Celebrini, Will Smith and goalie Yaroslav Askarov. Celebrini and Smith have factored in on the same goal 22 times this season, which leads all NHL duos. Askarov has emerged as San Jose’s No. 1 goalie and was a standout during November; he was tied for the NHL lead in wins (eight in 10 games) and ranked third in save percentage (.947) that month with better than a .900 save percentage in nine of those games.

Celebrini, who’s second in the NHL in points (40 in 27 games) behind Nathan MacKinnon of the Colorado Avalanche (46 in 26 games), has a robust EDGE stats profile (with rankings among forwards listed below):

• Hardest shot: 93.57 mph (97th percentile)
• 20-plus mph speed bursts: 74 (95th percentile)
• Total skating distance: 93.50 miles (99th percentile; fourth among forwards)
• Average shot speed: 62.56 (94th percentile)
• Midrange shots on goal: 40 (99th percentile; fifth among forwards)
• Midrange goals: 9 (99th percentile; tied for second among forwards)

Smith also checks some key advanced stats boxes, ranking in the 90th percentile among forwards or better in midrange shots on goal (35; 98th percentile), midrange goals (six; 97th percentile), hardest shot (90.26 mph; 91st percentile) and total skating distance (76.90 miles; 91st percentile). Askarov, meanwhile, ranks highly in all three saves by location categories: high-danger saves (127; 93rd percentile), midrange saves (139; 88th percentile) and long-range saves (104; 80th percentile).

The X-factor for the Sharks is their possession metrics; they rank last in 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage (43.4) this season. San Jose is also fourth worst in Ice Tilt, an NHL EDGE IQ metric that attempts to quantify a team’s territorial momentum at any given point during game play; it is derived from the average location of each team’s players on the ice (not the puck) in relation to the center redline over the preceding two minutes of game action. If the Sharks get more contributions from other rookies in forward Michael Misa (injured; nearing return) and defenseman Sam Dickinson over the course of the season, they could improve these metrics and be a potential surprise playoff team.