NHL EDGE stats: Celebrini emerging as Art Ross Trophy contender

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we look at the underlying metrics behind San Jose Sharks forward Macklin Celebrini.

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San Jose Sharks forward Macklin Celebrini has taken his game to new heights in his second NHL season and emerged as a dark horse candidate for the Art Ross Trophy.

The No. 1 pick in the 2024 NHL Draft, Celebrini became the fourth teenager in NHL history to reach 30 points in 20 games or fewer, joining Wayne Gretzky (1979-80, 1980-81), Sidney Crosby (2006-07) and Mario Lemieux (1984-85). The 19-year-old is also first teenager to have 25 points in a 15-game span during a single season since Patrik Laine (2017-18 with Jets). Celebrini, who won't turn 20 years old until after this regular season (June 13), joined Nathan MacKinnon (33) of the Colorado Avalanche and Connor McDavid (32) of the Edmonton Oilers as the only players with at least 30 points this season.

Celebrini’s frequent linemate Will Smith (No. 4 pick in 2023 NHL Draft), is also taking a big step forward this season with 19 points in 20 games (seven goals, 12 assists). Celebrini and Smith, who’s 20 years old, have formed a dynamic duo that could be cornerstones, along with fellow forward Michael Misa (No. 2 pick in 2025 NHL Draft), as the Sharks look to build a long-term Stanley Cup contender.

Celebrini and Smith have factored in on the same goal 16 times this season, second most among all NHL duos behind Winnipeg Jets teammates Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor (17). Celebrini has assisted on all seven of Smith’s goals, and it was Smith who assisted on two of Celebrini's three goals against the Utah Mammoth on Tuesday. Celebrini became the third teenager in NHL history to score an overtime goal to complete a hat trick, joining Laine (Oct. 19, 2016) and Jordan Staal (Feb. 10, 2007).

Here are three underlying metrics that suggest Celebrini has staying power in the Art Ross race:

1. Skating speed & distance

Celebrini leads the Sharks and ranks in the 95th percentile among forwards in 20-plus mile per hour speed bursts (55), including his max skating speed of 21.84 mph against the New York Rangers on Oct. 23. In that game, Celebrini tied his NHL career high in points (five; three goals, two assists) and became the fourth teenager in history with multiple five-point games, joining Gretzky (five), Dale Hawerchuk and Bryan Trottier (two each).

Celebrini ranks among the forward leaders in total skating distance (69.81 miles; seventh) this season. Celebrini is also tied for ninth in miles skated in a single period (1.68) this season.

2. Hardest shot & average shot speed

Celebrini had the hardest shot of his NHL career on Nov. 1 against the Avalanche (93.57 mph in third period), which ranks in the 97th percentile among forwards in that category. It was the second straight game in which Celebrini had recorded his hardest NHL shot attempt (91.72 mph against the New Jersey Devils on Oct. 30). Celebrini ranks among the forward leaders in average shot speed (63.12 mph; 95th percentile).

Celebrini’s elite shot has allowed him to continue his goal-scoring prowess despite not generating high-quality scoring chances so far this season. NHL EDGE IQ uses "Projected Goal Rate" (PGR) to estimate the likelihood of a shot attempt becoming a goal, and inferenced shot attempts exclude shots greater than 60 feet, those beyond the goal line and empty-net attempts. For context, anything at or above a PGR of 12.0 percent is considered a high-probability attempt.

Celebrini’s average PGR is 6.22 percent this season, which ranks just above the NHL average (5.15) and outside the top five among Sharks players with at least 20 inferenced shot attempts. Celebrini has scored 13 goals (tied for fourth in NHL) this season, with seven of them coming on shot attempts with a PGR below 8.0 percent.

3. Midrange goals & shots on goal

Expanding upon his outstanding rookie season, Celebrini continues to excel from midrange distances this season; he is tied for the League lead in midrange goals (eight; tied with MacKinnon and Bo Horvat of the New York Islanders) and tied for fourth in midrange shots on goal (32). Last season, Celebrini scored 10 midrange goals (90th percentile at position) and was tied for second in midrange shots on goal (119) behind MacKinnon (138).

Along with fellow young superstar Connor Bedard of the Chicago Blackhawks, Celebrini has emerged as a candidate for not only the Art Ross this season but also the Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophy (most goals) and Hart Trophy (most valuable player). With rapid rises for the young Sharks and Blackhawks, the longer Celebrini and Bedard keep their team in the Stanley Cup Playoffs race would only strengthen their case for any of the aforementioned NHL Awards.

Read more: EDGE stats behind Bedard, surprising Blackhawks

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