NHL EDGE stats: Celebrini emerging as Art Ross Trophy contender

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we look at the underlying metrics behind San Jose Sharks forward Macklin Celebrini.

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San Jose Sharks forward Macklin Celebrini has taken his game to new heights in his second NHL season and emerged as a dark horse candidate for the Art Ross Trophy.

The No. 1 pick in the 2024 NHL Draft, Celebrini is tied for sixth in the entire NHL in points (18 in 13 games). The 19-year-old is the first teenager to have 17 points in a 10-game span during a single season since Patrik Laine (2017-18 with Jets) and the first Sharks player with that many points during October since Patrick Marleau (19) and Joe Thornton (17) in 2009.

Celebrini’s frequent linemate Will Smith (No. 4 pick in 2023 NHL Draft), is also taking a big step forward this season with 11 points in 13 games (four goals, seven assists). Celebrini and Smith, who’s 20 years old, have formed a dynamic duo that could be cornerstones, along with fellow forward Michael Misa (No. 2 pick in 2025 NHL Draft), as the Sharks look to build a long-term Stanley Cup contender.

Celebrini and Smith have factored in on the same goal nine times this season, tied for the eighth most among all NHL duos. Celebrini has assisted on all four of Smith’s goals, including his goal against the New Jersey Devils on Thursday; San Jose has earned a point in five of their past seven games (4-2-1), including three overtime victories.

Here are three underlying metrics that suggest Celebrini has staying power in the Art Ross race:

1. Skating speed & distance

Celebrini leads the Sharks and ranks in the 92nd percentile among forwards in 20-plus mile per hour speed bursts (34), including his max skating speed of 21.84 mph against the New York Rangers on Oct. 23. In that game, Celebrini tied his NHL career high in points (five; three goals, two assists) and became the fourth teenager in history with multiple five-point games, joining Wayne Gretzky (five), Dale Hawerchuk and Bryan Trottier (two each).

Celebrini ranks among the forward leaders in total skating distance (46.70 miles; fifth) this season. Celebrini is also tied for seventh in miles skated in a single period (1.68) this season.

2. Hardest shot & average shot speed

Celebrini had the hardest shot of his NHL career against the Avalanche on Saturday (93.57 mph in third period), which ranks in the 98th percentile among forwards in that category. It was the second straight game in which Celebrini had recorded his hardest NHL shot attempt (91.72 mph against the New Jersey Devils on Thursday). Celebrini has 37 shot attempts of at least 70 mph, tied for fourth at his position behind Tage Thompson (57), Adrian Kempe (47) and David Pastrnak (38). Celebrini also ranks among the forward leaders in average shot speed (63.27 mph; 92nd percentile).

Celebrini’s elite shot has allowed him to continue his goal-scoring prowess despite not generating high-quality scoring chances so far this season. NHL EDGE IQ uses "Projected Goal Rate" (PGR) to estimate the likelihood of a shot attempt becoming a goal, and inferenced shot attempts exclude shots greater than 60 feet, those beyond the goal line and empty-net attempts. For context, anything at or above a PGR of 12.0 percent is considered a high-probability attempt. Celebrini’s average PGR is 4.29 percent this season, which ranks below the NHL average (5.10). Six of Celebrini’s seven goals this season have come on shot attempts with a PGR below 8.0 percent.

3. Mid-range goals & shots on goal

Expanding upon his outstanding rookie season, Celebrini continues to excel from mid-range distances this season; he is tied for the League lead in mid-range goals (five; tied with MacKinnon and Morgan Geekie of the Boston Bruins) and tied for sixth in mid-range shots on goal (21). Last season, Celebrini scored 10 mid-range goals (90th percentile at position) and was tied for second in mid-range shots on goal (119) behind MacKinnon (138).

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Read more: NHL EDGE stats leaders for 2025-26 season