NHL EDGE stats behind Ducks' breakout season

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we look at the underlying metrics behind the Anaheim Ducks' breakout season.

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One month into this season, the Anaheim Ducks have blossomed into a high-flying offense and are leading the Pacific Division standings with many strong advanced metrics. Anaheim extended its win streak to seven games against the Winnipeg Jets on Sunday, the longest active run in the NHL, and its longest win streak since 2021-22 (eight games).

The Ducks, who are 11-3-1 in their first 15 games have the second-best points percentage in the NHL (.767) behind the Colorado Avalanche (.781), have blended their elite young core with veteran leadership and coaching under three-time Stanley Cup champion Joel Quenneville.

Anaheim leads the League in goals per game (4.13) this season, a drastic turnaround after it finished near the bottom of the League last season (2.65; 30th out of 32 teams). Led by recent top-five picks Leo Carlsson (No. 2 pick in 2023 NHL Draft), Cutter Gauthier (No. 5 pick by Philadelphia Flyers in 2022 NHL Draft), Beckett Sennecke (No. 3 pick in 2024 NHL Draft) and Mason McTavish (No. 3 pick in 2021 NHL Draft), the Ducks have the most combined points (76), goals (33) and assists (43) by 23-or-younger players in the NHL this season.

The addition of goal-scoring wing Chris Kreider (nine goals in 11 games; most among offseason movers), who was acquired from the New York Rangers on June 12, has sparked an offensive outburst; the Ducks have two of the NHL's top six players in goals per game with Kreider (0.82; second) and Gauthier (0.73; tied for sixth). Anaheim has also already set a franchise record for most seven-goal games in a single season with four, becoming the second team to do that in their first 13 games over the past 30 seasons (other: Pittsburgh Penguins in 2019-20).

Here are three underlying reasons the Ducks can sustain their surprising start and end their six-season Stanley Cup Playoff drought this season:

1. High-danger goals

The Ducks have scored 33 high-danger goals, second in the League behind the Toronto Maple Leafs (34). Kreider is tied for fourth in the League in high-danger goals (seven) this season and leads that category since the start of the puck and player tracking era (123 since 2021-22). Forwards Sennecke (five; 94th percentile) and Troy Terry (four; 88th percentile), Kreider's frequent linemate, also rank highly in high-danger goals this season.

Anaheim leads the NHL with five point-per-game players this season: Carlsson (1.67), Gauthier (1.33), Terry (1.27), Kreider (1.09) and Mikael Granlund (1.00), who signed with the Ducks this offseason but is currently out with a lower-body injury. Carlsson scored two of Anaheim's four goals against the Jets on Sunday, becoming the second Swedish-born player in NHL history to have a 10-game point streak before turning 21 years old, joining William Nylander (12-game point streak in 2016-17). Carlsson (15 games) also became the fastest player in Ducks history to reach 25 points in a season, besting the previous mark held by Teemu Selanne (17 games in 1995-96).

2. Gauthier's advanced stats prowess

Acquired by the Ducks from the Flyers in 2024, Gauthier is tied for third in the NHL in goals (11) and leads the entire League in shots on goal per game (4.60) this season. Gauthier also ranks in the 90th percentile among forwards or higher in various EDGE stats:

• Hardest shot: 89.38 mph (91st percentile)
• Average shot speed: 66.58 mph (97th percentile)
• Max skating speed: 22.99 mph (94th percentile)
• 20-plus mph speed bursts: 56 (97th percentile)
• Midrange goals: 7 (99th percentile; third behind Nathan MacKinnon and Bo Horvat for NHL lead)
• Midrange shots on goal: 31 (99th percentile; second behind MacKinnon for NHL lead)
• Long-range shots on goal: 10 (99th percentile; tied for sixth among forwards)

NHL EDGE IQ uses "Projected Goal Rate" (PGR) to estimate the likelihood of an inferenced shot attempt becoming a goal based on the goalie's positioning, puck movement and traffic at the time of release. Inferenced shot attempts exclude shots greater than 60 feet, those beyond the goal line and empty-net attempts.

Gauthier (plus-5.21; third) and Carlsson (plus-5.00; fifth) are among the leaders in the entire NHL in Goals Above Projected, which is the difference between a player's actual goals scored and the sum of the PGRs on all of their inferenced shot attempts this season. Gauthier is also tied for third behind MacKinnon (nine) and Cole Caufield of the Montreal Canadiens (eight) in goals scored on offensive zone plays (seven). Gauthier has scored his other four goals off the rush (within five seconds of puck crossing offensive blue line), which ranks second on the Ducks behind Carlsson (five goals off rush).

3. Possession metrics

The Ducks rank 12th in 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage (51.1) this season, a strong indicator of a team's staying power as a postseason contender, marking another huge improvement under Quenneville compared to last season (46.3 under Greg Cronin). In terms of 5-on-5 shot attempts differential, Carlsson (plus-74) and Gauthier (plus-63) are the Ducks' leaders this season despite being 20 and 21 years old, respectively.

NHL EDGE IQ uses ”Ice Tilt” to quantify territorial momentum based on which team has the advantage (and by what margin) at any given point during game play. The Ducks have the best average ice tilt advantage in the first period (12:04 per game) this season, suggesting they are dictating tempo at the start of games better than any team in the League.

With goalie Lukas Dostal being the clear starter after John Gibson was traded to the Detroit Red Wings on June 28, Anaheim ranks eighth in 5-on-5 save percentage (.917) this season; Dostal has started 8-3-1, while backup Petr Mrazek is 3-0-0. Per NHL EDGE stats, Dostal ranks third in midrange save percentage (.934) among goalies who have played at least 10 games this season, beind Spencer Knight of the Chicago Blackahawks (.944) and Andrei Vasilevskiy of the Tampa Bay Lightning (.939).

It's also encouraging that the Ducks have had such a fast start despite top defenseman Jackson LaCombe being held to no goals and six assists in 14 games. LaCombe, who's seventh in the entire NHL in average ice time (25:20), ranks in the 95th percentile in total skating distance (54.50 miles) this season. Defenseman Olen Zellweger is also an EDGE stats standout, ranking third among NHL defensemen in 20-plus mph speed bursts (50) behind Matthew Schaefer of the New York Islanders (59) and Jake Sanderson of the Ottawa Senators (53) and third on the Ducks in 5-on-5 shot attempts differential (plus-47).

Although the Ducks could see some regression in shooting percentage, specifically from high-danger areas (Anaheim is second in the NHL with a 28.2 high-danger shooting percentage), their young core is taking huge strides and is showing plenty of resiliency when trailing in games. Six of the Ducks' 11 wins this season have been comeback victories (including three multigoal comeback wins); Anaheim now has 10 multigoal comeback wins since the start of last season, the most in the NHL.

The Ducks' breakout season has come earlier than expected, and their impressive rebuild has set them up to contend for the Pacific Division title as early as this season and potentially the Stanley Cup in the years ahead.

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