EDGE stats: Surprise 2026 NHL Awards contenders

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we look at the advanced metrics behind some surprise NHL Awards contenders at the quarter point of the 2025-26 season.

Jack Adams Award: Dan Muse, PIT

The Pittsburgh Penguins coach has guided them to a top-three position in the Metropolitan Division standings at the one-quarter mark of his first season after they missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs in each of the prior three seasons. The Penguins have the best power-play percentage in the NHL (34.1), a top-10 offense (3.26 goals per game, tied for eighth in NHL) and stingy defense (three shutouts, tied for most in NHL) at the one-quarter mark of the season, catapulting Muse into the race for coach of the year.

In addition to Sidney Crosby’s continued scoring dominance at 38 years old, his longtime teammate Evgeni Malkin has had a bounce-back season (23 points in 19 games at the one-quarter mark of the season). Per NHL EDGE stats, Malkin’s offensive zone start percentage (46; 97th percentile among forwards) has maximized his productivity at 39 years old, and Muse has the Penguins among the leaders in high-danger shots on goal (167; ninth) and power-play offensive zone time percentage (61.1; eighth) at the one-quarter mark of the season.

Other surprise Adams candidates: Marco Sturm, BOS, and Jeff Blashill, CHI

Calder Trophy: Beckett Sennecke, F, ANA

Although New York Islanders defenseman Matthew Schaefer is the front-runner for rookie of the year at the one-quarter mark of the season, Sennecke has been thriving for the Anaheim Ducks and leads NHL rookies in even-strength points (12) and multipoint games (four). The 19-year-old also ranks highly among his class in goals (six; tied for third), assists (eight; tied for third), points (13; third) and shots on goal (36; tied for sixth) as of the one-quarter mark of the season.

Sennecke, the No. 3 pick in the 2024 NHL Draft, is forming strong chemistry with fellow young linemates Cutter Gauthier and Mason McTavish; all six of Sennecke’s goals this season have had primary assists by either Gauthier or McTavish (three each). Per NHL EDGE stats, Sennecke ranks among the forward leaders in 20-plus mph speed bursts (54; 94th percentile) and high-danger goals (five; 90th percentile) at the one-quarter mark of the season.

With center Leo Carlsson already a candidate for the Hart (most valuable player) and Art Ross (most points) trophies, the Ducks' young core has blossomed under veteran coach Joel Quenneville and is contending for not only the Stanley Cup Playoffs but also the Pacific Division title. Per NHL EDGE stats, the Ducks are tied with the Toronto Maple Leafs and Vancouver Canucks for the League lead in high-danger goals (40) at the one-quarter mark of the season.

Other surprise Calder candidate: Yaroslav Askarov, G, SJS

Hart Trophy: Connor Bedard, F, CHI and Macklin Celebrini, F, SJS

The Chicago Blackhawks and San Jose Sharks forwards have emerged as two of the top contenders for the Hart, Art Ross and Maurice "Rocket" Richard (most goals) trophies. At the one-quarter mark of the season, Bedard and Celebrini are tied for fourth in goals (13 each; one behind NHL leaders); each also ranks in the top five in points (Celebrini: 30, third; Bedard: 29, fourth).

Bedard, 20, and Celebrini, 19, had hat tricks on Nov. 18, marking the second day in NHL history to feature multiple hat tricks by 20-or-younger players (other: Jack Hamilton, Bud Poile of Toronto Maple Leafs on Feb. 19, 1944).

Celebrini, the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NHL Draft, is tied for the League lead in midrange goals (eight) and ranks in the top 10 among forwards in midrange shots on goal (32; tied for fourth) and total skating distance (69.81 miles; seventh) at the one-quarter mark of the season. He is also in the 95th percentile among forwards in average shot speed (63.12 mph) and 20-plus mph speed bursts (55) during his second NHL season.

Read more: EDGE stats behind Celebrini’s prowess

Bedard, the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NHL Draft, is having a full-fledged breakout in his third NHL season and ranks in the 90th percentile or higher among forwards in the following advanced stats categories at the one-quarter mark:

• 20-plus mph speed bursts: 70 (97th percentile)
• Total skating distance: 66.41 miles (97th percentile)
• Even-strength skating distance: 56.84 miles (seventh among forwards; 99th percentile)
• Average shot speed: 60.95 mph (91st percentile)
• Midrange shots on goal: 33 (third; 99th percentile)
• Midrange goals: 6 (tied for sixth; 99th percentile)
• High-danger goals: 5 (90th percentile)

Read more: EDGE stats behind Bedard’s prowess

It’s worth noting there have only been three players to win the Hart Trophy before turning 21 years old: Connor McDavid (2016-17), Sidney Crosby (2006-07) and Wayne Gretzky (twice; 1979-80, 1980-81). But the longer that Bedard and/or Celebrini keep their teams in the Stanley Cup Playoffs race would only strengthen their case for any of the aforementioned NHL Awards.

Other surprise Hart candidate: Leo Carlsson, F, ANA

Norris Trophy: Miro Heiskanen, D, DAL

The Dallas Stars defenseman ranks fourth at the position in both assists (15) and points (18) and is tied for fourth in power-play points (seven) at the one-quarter mark of the season. Although Cale Makar of the Colorado Avalanche is a two-time Norris winner and the front-runner again this season, Heiskanen began building a strong case even before the injury to teammate Thomas Harley (lower body; week to week); the only defensemen with more multipoint games than Heiskanen (five) at the one-quarter mark of the season are Makar (seven), Adam Fox and Josh Morrissey (six each).

Per NHL EDGE stats, Heiskanen ranks among the defenseman leaders this season in total skating distance (70.97 miles; 97th percentile), midrange shots on goal (15; tied for sixth; 98th percentile), high-danger shots on goal (four; 93rd percentile) and offensive zone time percentage (45.3; 90th percentile) at the one-quarter mark of the season.

Other surprise Norris candidate: Matthew Schaefer, D, NYI

Vezina Trophy: Scott Wedgewood, G, COL

The Colorado goalie, who took on the starter’s role after Mackenzie Blackwood missed the start of the season with an injury, leads the League in wins (11) at the one-quarter mark of the season and has only lost once in regulation. With Blackwood’s return earlier this month, he and Wedgewood have formed one of the League’s best tandems. Per NHL EDGE stats, Wedgewood has the best midrange save percentage (.941; minimum 10 games) and is tied with four others for the most starts with greater than a .900 save percentage (10) at the one-quarter mark of the season.

NHL EDGE IQ uses “Projected Goal Rate” (PGR) to estimate the likelihood of a shot attempt becoming a goal. For context, anything at or above a PGR of 12.0 percent is considered a high-probability attempt, and the NHL average PGR this season is approximately 5.14 percent for inferenced shot attempts. Inferenced shot attempts exclude shots greater than 60 feet, those beyond the goal line and empty-net attempts.

“Saves Above Projected,” another NHL EDGE IQ metric, is the total shots on goal minus the sum of the PGR on all of those inferenced attempts. A positive number means the goalie is making more saves than an average goalie would given the quality of the shot attempt that reaches goal. In terms of “Saves Above Projected” at the one-quarter mark of the season, Wedgewood (plus-9.43) ranks third in the NHL behind Logan Thompson (plus-12.82) of the Washington Capitals and Spencer Knight of the Blackhawks (plus-12.17).

Connor Hellebuyck of the Winnipeg Jets has won the Vezina in consecutive seasons but is having knee surgery, opening the door for Wedgewood, Thompson and some other workhorse starters in the race for top goalie. With the Avalanche leading the NHL standings at 13-1-5 at the one-quarter mark of the season and Wedgewood having the offensive support of major awards contenders in Nathan MacKinnon (leads NHL with 33 points in 19 games at one-quarter mark) and Makar (leads defensemen with 25 points), the 33-year-old goalie is a dark horse Vezina candidate -- even as their 1A option in net.

Other surprise Vezina candidate: Spencer Knight, G, CHI