NHL EDGE stats behind Dobes’ hot start for Canadiens

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we look at the underlying metrics behind Montreal Canadiens rookie goalie Jakub Dobes.

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Jakub Dobes has emerged as the Montreal Canadiens’ starting goalie early this season and also a dark horse contender for the Calder Trophy as NHL rookie of the year backed by strong advanced stats.

Dobes is 6-0-0 to start the season, and among goalies who have played at least four games this season, is tied for third in save percentage (.930) and ranks fourth in goals-against average (1.97). He is the first Canadiens goalie to begin a season with a six-game winning streak since Carey Price (started 10-0-0 in 2016-17).

Dobes is outperforming Sam Montembeault (.842 save percentage in five games), who was a workhorse starter and had a career-best season (31 wins, four shutouts in 62 games) for Montreal in 2024-25, and has helped the Canadiens win eight of its first 11 games (8-3-0) this season. The 24-year-old, who still is rookie eligible, is 13-4-3 with a .915 save percentage and one shutout in his first 22 NHL games.

Here are three underlying reasons Dobes could be sustainable as the Canadiens starting goalie and they can contend for the Atlantic Division title this season.

1. High-danger save percentage

Dobes leads the NHL in high-danger save percentage (.918; minimum four games played) and ranks second in 5-on-5 save percentage (.959) behind Logan Thompson of the Washington Capitals (.960 in seven games). By comparison, Montembeault’s high-danger save percentage (.636 in five games) is below the NHL average (.810) this season.

Dobes stopped all four high-danger shots he faced against the Seattle Kraken on Tuesday, the fourth time in his six games that he did not allow a single high-danger goal. Another key to his hot start, has been Dobes' success on perimeter shots; prior to allowing two long-range goals on Tuesday, he had been perfect on long-range shots against through his first five games of the season (37 shots faced, 37 saves).

At 5-on-5, the Canadiens have outscored their opponents by seven goals (26-19), tied for the second-best goal differential in those situations this season.

2. Saves above projected

NHL EDGE IQ uses “Projected Goal Rate” (PGR) to estimate the likelihood of a shot attempt becoming a goal. For context, anything at or above a PGR of 12.0 percent is considered a high-probability attempt, and the NHL average PGR this season is approximately 5.42 percent for inferenced shot attempts. “Saves Above Projected,” another advanced metric from NHL EDGE IQ, is the total shots on goal minus the sum of the PGR on all of those inferenced attempts. Inferenced shot attempts exclude shots greater than 60 feet, those beyond the goal line and empty-net attempts. A positive number means the goalie is making more saves than an average goalie would, given the quality of the shot attempt that reaches goal.

In terms of “Saves Above Projected,” Dobes (plus-3.88) ranks fifth in the NHL behind Spencer Knight (plus-9.06) of the Chicago Blackhawks, Thatcher Demko (plus-8.68) of the Vancouver Canucks, Thompson (plus-8.55) and Connor Hellebuyck (plus-7.32) of the Winnipeg Jets.

Montreal has the second-lowest average PGR against (4.59 percent) behind only the Seattle Kraken (4.45 percent), meaning they are limiting high-quality attempts in front of their goalies.

3. Skating speed

Montreal ranks third in 20-plus mile per hour speed bursts (322) behind the Colorado Avalanche (389) and Edmonton Oilers (328). Defenseman Lane Hutson, last season's Calder Trophy winner and Montreal’s cornerstone at the position, ranks in the 98th percentile in max skating speed (22.91 mph), while forward Josh Anderson ranks eighth in the NHL in 20-plus mph bursts (46).

Hutson is tied with Cale Makar of the Avalanche and Erik Karlsson of the Pittsburgh Penguins for the most even-strength points (eight each) among defensemen. In fact, Canadiens defensemen have combined for a League-leading 33 points (seven goals, 26 assists), and their combination of goal-scoring (3.64 goals per game; tied for fifth in NHL), speed and defensive awareness have made them one of the most dynamic teams in the NHL.

With an average age of 25.72 years old, Montreal is the youngest team in the NHL this season. The Canadiens’ young core, led by captain Nick Suzuki, goal-scoring wings Cole Caufield and rookie Ivan Demidov, defensemen Hutson, Noah Dobson and now Dobes, has them equipped to make a deep Stanley Cup Playoff run this season and beyond.