NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we take a look at the advanced stats for forward Brad Marchand ahead of his expected Florida Panthers debut.
EDGE stats: Marchand's outlook after trade to Panthers
Veteran forward has impressive debut with new team, excels in high-danger shots on goal
© Steve Babineau/NHLI
The Florida Panthers acquired Brad Marchand from the Boston Bruins on March 7, boosting their chances of repeating as Stanley Cup champions.
Marchand assisted on the overtime goal and had four shots on goal on eight shot attempts in his Panthers debut against the Utah Hockey Club on Friday. Looking ahead to the Stanley Cup Playoffs, Marchand could give them a formidable second line if he and Matthew Tkachuk are healthy and playing on a unit with center Sam Bennett.
Marchand, who will turn 37 years old on May 11, can become an unrestricted free agent after this season. Among active NHL players, Marchand ranks ninth in career regular-season goals (422) and fourth in career playoff goals (56).
Per NHL EDGE stats, the Panthers are among the leaders in high-danger shots on goal (591; fourth) and midrange SOG (590; eighth) and incorporate Marchand, who ranks in the 94th percentile among forwards in high-danger SOG (68) and also highly in midrange goals (six; 80th percentile) and midrange SOG (50; 85th percentile) despite being limited to 62 games this season.
The Panthers have won 11 of their 16 games (11-5-0) since the 4 Nations Face-Off despite Tkachuk sustaining a groin injury during the best-on-best tournament and being out for an extended time. Per NHL EDGE stats, Tkachuk is among the forward leaders in offensive zone time percentage (47.5 percent; 97th percentile), high-danger goals (13; 88th percentile) and high-danger shots on goal (52; 85th percentile). Marchand also ranks highly in offensive zone time percentage (45.1; 87th percentile) this season.
Florida's supporting cast, even without Tkachuk for the time being, is a big upgrade around Marchand compared to in Boston, where he was playing mostly on a separate line from elite right wing David Pastrnak this season. Marchand, despite his high-danger shots on goal volume, only had nine high-danger goals with the Bruins this season (74th percentile), giving him a high-danger shooting percentage (13.6) well below both the NHL average (20.2) and his rate from last season (26.2; his 16 high-danger goals ranked in the 90th percentile).
In his first game with the Panthers, Marchand played on a line with Bennett and rookie standout Mackie Samoskevich, who has been productive since the 4 Nations Face-Off break with 10 points, six on the power play, over his past 15 games (five goals, five assists). The trio combined for four points in Friday's 2-1 win and Bennett scored both goals. The Panthers, as a team, rank second in the League in 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage (54.6; behind Carolina Hurricanes’ 58.7).
With Tkachuk still out, Marchand could factor into their first power-play unit down the stretch of the season. Despite missing time this season, Marchand ranks in the 84th percentile in power-play skating distance (24.91 miles) and, since 2016-17, is 12th in the NHL in power-play points (222). Over the past two seasons combined, the Panthers rank fourth in power-play goals (115).
The Marchand trade wasn’t the only big move by Florida this season; the Panthers acquired defenseman Seth Jones from the Chicago Blackhawks on March 1. Florida has recently been playing without Aaron Ekblad, who was suspended 20 games on March 10 for violating terms of the NHL/NHLPA Performance Enhancing Substances Program.
Marchand should also help Florida's penalty kill; he leads active NHL players in career shorthanded goals (36; tied for eighth in League history), and the Panthers already rank second in shorthanded goals (12) this season behind the New York Rangers (14). Since Jan. 1, Florida and the Winnipeg Jets have allowed the fewest goals per game (2.21), and workhorse starter Sergei Bobrovsky ranks among the League leaders in wins (31 in 48 games; tied for fourth) and shutouts (five; tied for third) this season.
The addition of Marchand’s physicality, goal-scoring ability and championship pedigree (won Stanley Cup with Bruins in 2011), along with the potential returns of Tkachuk and Ekblad in the playoffs, give the Panthers a chance to make the Stanley Cup Final for the third straight season. And the fact that the Panthers defeated the Bruins in each of the past two postseasons adds to the intrigue of them landing Boston's former captain to an already strong core.
---
