NHL EDGE stats: Sorokin building strong case for Vezina Trophy

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we identify the key advanced metrics behind Ilya Sorokin’s case for the Vezina Trophy this season.

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Ilya Sorokin is building a strong case to win the Vezina Trophy this season with elite advanced stats, keeping the New York Islanders in the thick of the Stanley Cup Playoff race.

Sorokin leads the NHL in shutouts (seven) both this season and since entering the League in 2020-21 (29; four more than second-place Connor Hellebuyck’s 25) and is also the Islanders' franchise leader in that category. Sorokin is also tied with Logan Thompson of the Washington Capitals for the NHL lead in save percentage (.914) among goalies who have played at least 40 games this season and ranks sixth in wins (27).

Hellebuyck is the reigning, back-to-back winner of the Vezina Trophy, awarded to the NHL’s top goalie each regular season, and also won the Hart Trophy as most valuable player last season. But with the Winnipeg Jets likely to miss the Stanley Cup Playoffs, this season’s race has narrowed down to Sorokin and another perennial contender in Andrei Vasilevskiy of the Tampa Bay Lightning (won Vezina in 2019).

Led by Sorokin, who’s in his prime at 30 years old, and 18-year-old defenseman Matthew Schaefer, the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NHL Draft and front-runner for the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year, the Islanders’ rebuild under first-year general manager Mathieu Darche is way ahead of schedule. The last time one team had the Calder and Vezina Trophy winners in the same season was the Buffalo Sabres in 2009-10 with goalie Ryan Miller (Vezina) and defenseman Tyler Myers (Calder).

The Islanders have signature wins against the top teams in the NHL standings this season, including the Colorado Avalanche (once), Lightning (all three times), Dallas Stars (twice) and Minnesota Wild (once). Sorokin has started in six of those seven victories.

Here are some key underlying metrics behind Sorokin’s dominance:

1. High-danger save metrics

Sorokin leads qualifying goalies (minimum 22 games played) in high-danger save percentage (.881) this season, much higher than both Vasilevskiy (.847) and the NHL average (.814). Sorokin also leads the NHL in high-danger saves (407) and high-danger shots faced (462), showing how he continues to thrive despite facing the highest volume of difficult shots.

One factor that has benefited Sorokin this season is the reliable play of backup David Rittich, who has 14 wins and two shutouts in 28 games this season. Rittich’s play has helped coach Patrick Roy, a three-time Vezina winner himself, manage Sorokin’s workload; Sorokin has played 47 games, tied for 12th in the NHL, and the Islanders have the fourth-best team save percentage (.901). But Rittich’s high-danger save percentage (.810) is below the League average, further proving how valuable Sorokin has been to his team.

2. 5-on-5 save percentage

In addition to Sorokin’s success facing high-danger shots, he is tied for seventh in 5-on-5 save percentage (.923) this season. The Islanders rank 26th out of 32 teams in offensive zone time percentage (40.1; below League average of 41.1) and are 19th in 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage (48.9).

Sorokin also ranks just outside the top 10 in 5-on-5 save percentage in close situations (.922), meaning when a game is tied in the first or second period or within one goal in the third period.

[SOROKIN’S SAVE AGAINST PREDATORS ON JAN. 31]

3. Saves Above Projected

Per NHL EDGE IQ, Sorokin ranks second in “Saves Above Projected” (plus-33.9) this season behind Thompson (plus-44.0). “Saves Above Projected” is the total shots on goal a goalie faces minus the sum of the Projected Goal Rate on all of his inferenced shot attempts faced (excluding attempts taken greater than 60 feet, beyond the goal line or against empty net). A positive number for “Saves Above Projected” means a goalie is making more saves than the average goalie would given the quality of shots on goal faced.

Among the 24 goalies who have played at least 40 games this season, Sorokin is tied for 14th in team goals for average among goalies (2.83). He’s also outside the top 10 in goal differential among goalies (plus-16), meaning he has received moderate goal support despite his elite play. By comparison, Vasilevskiy leads the NHL in goal differential among goalies (plus-57), showing how he has benefited from the Lightning’s elite offense (3.61 goals per game; second in NHL behind Avalanche’s 3.70).

Sorokin’s prowess has the Islanders contending in a jam-packed Eastern Conference playoff race, which features six teams separated by four points for the final four playoff spots (two in Metropolitan Division, two wild-card spots). Sorokin’s chances of winning the Vezina over Vasilevskiy hinge on the Islanders making the playoffs, but the Islanders goalie continues to prove he’s one of the players most instrumental to his team’s success.