NHL EDGE stats: Stamkos’ goal-scoring resurgence for Predators

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we identify the key advanced metrics surrounding Nashville Predators forward Steven Stamkos during his bounce-back season.

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Steven Stamkos is having a bounce-back season for the Nashville Predators, re-emerging as one of the game’s elite goal-scorers backed by strong advanced stats and keeping them in Stanley Cup Playoff contention.

Stamkos, who’s 36 years old, is turning back the clock with 34 goals in 70 games, tied for 14th in the NHL, this season and quietly leads the entire League in game-winning goals (10) and is tied for the most hat tricks (two; including four-goal game Dec. 11). Last season, Stamkos scored 27 goals in 82 games during his first year with Nashville after leaving his longtime team, the Tampa Bay Lightning, and signing a four-year contract with the Predators on July 1, 2024.

Stamkos is also among the NHL leaders in even-strength goals (24; tied for 12th), and the Predators (33-28-9; 75 points) currently hold the second wild-card spot in the Western Conference with 12 games remaining. Nashville is 6-3-1 in its past 10 games, and its four-game winning streak is the longest active streak in the NHL. Stamkos has five points (three goals, two assists), three power-play points and six shots on goal over that span.

Since Nov. 26, Stamkos is tied with Cole Caufield and Nikita Kucherov for the NHL lead in goals (30 each). Over that 48-game span, the Predators rank 11th in the NHL in points (27-16-5; 59 points) and fourth in the Western Conference, led by their experienced core of forwards Stamkos, Filip Forsberg, Ryan O’Reilly, defenseman Roman Josi and goalie Juuse Saros.

Among active NHL players, Stamkos ranks third in career goals (616) behind Alex Ovechkin (League’s all-time leader with 932) and Sidney Crosby (653). Stamkos is also one of five active players with at least one 60-goal season (reached mark in 2011-12); the others are Auston Matthews (twice), Connor McDavid, Ovechkin and David Pastrnak. Stamkos is a two-time Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy winner (60 in 2012; scored 51 in 2010) as the NHL’s goal leader in a single season and two-time Stanley Cup champion with the Lightning (2020, 2021).

Here are three underlying metrics storylines behind Stamkos’ goal-scoring resurgence:

1. Shot speed

Stamkos is seventh among forwards in 90-plus mph shots (nine) this season. He also ranks highly at the position in hardest shot (95.00 mph; 97th percentile) and shot attempts between 80-90 mph (43; 96th percentile).

Stamkos is tied for ninth in the entire NHL in slap shot goals (six). Over the past two seasons combined, Stamkos leads NHL forwards in slap shot goals (16) and ranks second in the entire League behind Darren Raddysh of the Tampa Bay Lightning in that category (18).

2. Goals by location

Stamkos ranks among the forward leaders in high-danger goals (15; 94th percentile), midrange goals (nine; 92nd percentile) and midrange shots on goal (58; 90th percentile) this season. Stamkos’ combined goal total from the middle regions of the ice (24; high-danger plus midrange goals) is more than he scored from that area last season (18 in 2024-25; eight from high-danger plus 10 from midrange).

Stamkos’ goal-scoring improvement can also be explained by his uptick in high-danger shooting percentage. After ranking below the NHL forward average in high-danger shooting percentage last season (18.6), he ranks in the 95th percentile at the position this season (30.6).

3. Offensive zone time percentage

Stamkos ranks in the 92nd percentile among forwards in offensive zone time percentage (45.8), and Nashville ranks third in offensive zone time percentage at even strength (42.5). The Predators also rank highly in 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage (50.1; tied for 13th) this season, a strong indicator of a team's staying power as a postseason contender.

Stamkos’ skating ability has also remained strong in the later stages of his career; Stamkos ranks in the 90th percentile among forwards in even-strength skating distance (167.26 miles) and 84th percentile in max skating speed (22.95 mph). Among the 26 players with at least 30 goals this season, Stamkos averages the fifth-fewest ice time (17:47 per game) of that group, showing how Predators coach Andrew Brunette is keeping his veteran forward fresh and opportunistic.

Nashville missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs last season, and general manager Barry Trotz recently announced he will be stepping down after this season. But even with the Predators at a crossroads between contending and rebuilding, Stamkos’ rejuvenated play has them relevant again in the Western Conference playoff picture.