Quinton Byfield scored a one-handed, highlight-reel goal for the Los Angeles Kings at 1:48 of the first period against the Seattle Kraken on Monday, and the advanced stats behind the goal's probability are eye-opening.
Byfield set up on the doorstep, knocked the puck out of the air off a point shot from defenseman Kyle Burroughs and then shoveled it behind Kraken goalie Joey Daccord on his backhand -- all with one hand. Byfield turned a backhanded shot attempt from the boards by Burroughs, which was more than 50 feet away from the net, into a high-percentage scoring chance.
NHL EDGE IQ, powered by Amazon Web Services, uses "Projected Goal Rate" (PGR) to estimate the likelihood of a shot attempt becoming a goal. The actual goal rate (AGR) of all shots this season across the League is 5.0 percent.
Byfield’s goal had a high PGR (58.0 percent). When Burroughs attempted his shot, the PGR was approximately only 1.61 percent based on his location on the ice at the time of the release (outside-left area). So the nifty play by Byfield drastically increased the quality of the scoring chance, with Byfield’s hand-eye coordination making what started as a low-percentage attempt turn into a high-danger goal.
There are three key reasons why Byfield’s shot attempt registered such a high PGR:
• Goalie angle (Daccord was 57.99 degrees from the puck line)
• Goalie distance to cover on save attempt (Daccord’s furthest distance to travel to intercept the puck would be 4.94 feet)
• Shooter distance to goal line (Byfield was 4.50 feet from the goal line when he released the puck, his closest distance on a goal this season)
For context, this goal had the second-highest PGR on a Kings' non-empty net goal this season, behind Anze Kopitar’s second-period goal against the Vegas Golden Knights on Oct. 30 (60.9 percent).
Byfield, the No. 2 pick in the 2020 NHL Draft, matched his career high in goals (20) in the game. After starting the season with 23 points in his first 49 games, Byfield has shown breakout potential with 25 points in his past 28 games. He leads the Kings with nine goals over their past 18 games, including a six-game goal streak from March 5-15.
It was Byfield’s eighth high-danger goal of the season; 17 of his 20 goals last season were from high-danger areas (93rd percentile). Byfield became the second Kings player over the past 35 years to record multiple 20-goal seasons prior to turning 23 years old, joining Kopitar (four 20-goal seasons between 2006-07 and 2009-10).
Byfield has been an advanced stats standout for the Kings all season; here are some more of his EDGE stats highlights, along with his percentile rankings among forwards:
• 98th percentile in total skating distance (250.40 miles)
• 98th percentile in 20-plus mph speed bursts (286); 10th among forwards
• 95th percentile in top skating speed (23.40 mph)
• 91st percentile in top shot speed (93.00 mph)
• 89th percentile in midrange goals (nine)
• 85th percentile in long-range shots (16)
• 81st percentile in high-danger shots (51)
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