NHL EDGE stats: Sabres show signs of potential turnaround

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we take a look at the underlying metrics of the Buffalo Sabres this season.

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The Buffalo Sabres, who fired general manager Kevyn Adams and replaced him with Jarmo Kekäläinen on Dec. 15, have underlying metrics that suggest they could improve in the coming months of the season.

The Sabres, who have the longest active Stanley Cup Playoff drought in the NHL (14 seasons; last appearance: 2011), are in the midst of their first seven-game winning streak since a franchise record-tying 10-0-0 run in November 2018. That said, Buffalo has spent the seventh-most time trailing this season (811:11).

The Sabres, after coach Lindy Ruff rejoined the franchise for a second tenure, led the NHL in first-period goals (92) and were tied for the best 5-on-5 shooting percentage (10.6) last season but still missed the postseason. This season, Buffalo has remained an inconsistent team but was only six points behind the Eastern Conference wild-card spots at the time of its GM change.

Buffalo, which had the No. 1 pick in the NHL Draft in both 2018 (selected Rasmus Dahlin) and 2021 (selected Owen Power), has made significant trades in recent seasons involving big-name players like Jack Eichel (to Vegas Golden Knights), Sam Reinhart and Brandon Montour (to Florida Panthers in separate deals) and JJ Peterka (to Utah Mammoth). While some current Sabres players involved in those trades have had productive tenures (e.g. Alex Tuch, Josh Doan), Eichel, Reinhart and Montour have each won the Stanley Cup with his new team.

Here are three underlying storylines surrounding the Sabres, identifying either areas to improve for the current roster or to address leading up to the NHL Trade Deadline on March 6:

1. Strong shot metrics of Thompson, other skaters

The Sabres rank in the top 10 in both average shot speed (59.52 mph; fifth) and 20-plus mph speed bursts (951; seventh); they are one of four teams in the top 10 of each category, joining the Colorado Avalanche, New York Islanders and Ottawa Senators.

Forward Tage Thompson, who leads Buffalo in goals (18), points (32 in 36 games) and shots on goal (125), is an EDGE stats standout who ranks in the 90th percentile or higher among forwards in the following categories:

• Hardest shot: 97.94 mph (99th percentile; fifth among forwards)
• Average shot speed: 65.70 (98th percentile)
• High-danger shots on goal: 34 (91st percentile)
• Midrange shots on goal: 48 (99th percentile; tied for sixth among forwards)
• Long-range shots on goal: 19 (99th percentile; tied for fifth among forwards)
• Midrange goals: 8 (98th percentile; tied for ninth among forwards)
• Long-range goals: 2 (98th percentile; tied for fifth among forwards)

Buffalo also ranks highly in both midrange shots on goal (305; ninth) and midrange goals (36; tied for eighth) this season. Rasmus Dahlin, the Sabres’ best all-around player, ranks highly among defensemen in midrange shots on goal (30; 98th percentile; seventh at position), hardest shot (96.17 mph; 91st percentile) and offensive zone time percentage (45.3; 91st percentile).

Doan, acquired as part of the return in the Peterka trade, is tied for fifth in the entire NHL in high-danger shots on goal (54) this season. Center Josh Norris, who has been limited by injuries this season, is the only Sabres player averaging a point-per-game (10 points in 10 games) and is also among the forward leaders in offensive zone time percentage (46.0; 92nd percentile).

2. Goaltending

Buffalo’s goaltending is outside the top 10 in both 5-on-5 save percentage (.902; 20th in NHL) and team save percentage overall (.890; tied for 17th) with the trio of Alex Lyon, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Colten Ellis. Lyon has seen encouraging performances on this Sabres’ hot streak, winning six straight games with a combined .922 save percentage in the span.

Lyon has stopped 113 of 115 long-range shots faced this season (.983 long-range save percentage) but is close to the League averages in both midrange and high-danger save percentages. Last season, Lyon was tied for 10th in the NHL in midrange save percentage (.906) with the Detroit Red Wings. Per NHL EDGE IQ, the Sabres have the fifth-lowest average Projected Goal Rate (PGR) against (5.30 percent), indicating their defense is not allowing as many high-quality scoring chances compared to most of the League.

It’s worth noting Buffalo also has prospect Devon Levi playing for Rochester in the American Hockey League; Levi, who was acquired in the Reinhart trade, has a .919 save percentage in 85 career AHL games, highlighted by his 25 wins and seven shutouts in 42 games last season.

3. Hitting posts and crossbar

The Sabres had the most shot attempts that hit the post or crossbar in the NHL last season (128) and have the seventh-most missed shots off the post or crossbar this season (47). Considering those attempts do not count as shots on goal, this trend impacts some of their surface-level stats and indicates how close the Sabres could be to a turnaround. Thompson, widely regarded as one of the League’s top goal-scorers, is tied for the NHL lead in posts or crossbars hit this season (11).

The Sabres rank in the middle of the pack in key categories like goals per game (3.03; tied for 15th), shots on goal per game (28.3; 16th) and power-play percentage (20.2; tied for 15th) despite dealing with previous injuries to Norris, Michael Kesselring and Zach Benson, a leave of absence for Dahlin and current injuries to Jiri Kulich, Tyson Kozak and Jason Zucker. Defensively, the Sabres are second in both penalty kill percentage (84.5) and takeaways per 60 minutes (5.08) this season, two other metrics indicating they could see better fortunes ahead in the standings.

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