NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we take a look at the advanced stats behind Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar's 30-goal season.
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Cale Makar is in rare company after scoring 30 goals in a single season as a defenseman, and his brilliant advanced metrics have him on track for even more accolades down the road.
The 26-year-old, who already has won the Stanley Cup with the Avalanche (2022), as well as the Conn Smythe Trophy as most valuable player of the playoffs (2022), the Norris Trophy as the League's best defenseman (2022) and the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year (2020), became the ninth defenseman in NHL history to reach the 30-goal mark and one of five ever at the position to have 30-plus goals and 60-plus assists in a season, joining Paul Coffey, Ray Bourque, Denis Potvin and Bobby Orr.
Makar has the three highest single-season point totals by a defenseman in Avalanche/Quebec Nordiques history, topped by his 90 points this season (90 in 2023-24, 86 in 2021-22).
His 90 points this season are second on the Avalanche, behind Nathan MacKinnon (114), he would lead 26 of the 31 other NHL franchises.
Makar, who surpassed his previous NHL career high of 28 goals from 2021-22, is the first defenseman to score 30 in a season since Mike Green in 2008-09 (31 in 68 games); they are the only two at the position to reach that mark in the past 30 seasons. Makar is the front-runner for the Norris Trophy this season, and the Avalanche are one of the top contenders for the Stanley Cup -- with Makar checking almost every EDGE stats box along the way.
Here are five advanced metrics that Makar has thrived in this season to help him reach new heights as a goal scorer:
1. Skating speed
Makar, who has played in all 77 of Colorado's games this season, leads NHL defensemen in speed bursts of 20-plus miles per hour (200). He also leads defensemen and is tied for ninth among all skaters in 22-plus mph bursts (27). Makar also ranks seventh among defensemen in top skating speed (23.63 mph) and is just outside top 10 among all skaters.
2. Shot speed
Makar reached his top shot speed of the season (98.42 mph) in the third period against the Vancouver Canucks on Dec. 16 and ranks in the 93rd percentile among defensemen in that category. Makar also ranks seventh at his position and eighth among all skaters in 90-plus mph shots (32).
His 30th goal of the season came on a snap shot, his ninth such goal of the season. His tallies on other shot types include 17 wrist-shot goals (leads defensemen; tied for 12th in the NHL) and four slap-shot goals.
3. Goals and shots by location
Makar leads the NHL in long-range goals (10) this season, has the most midrange goals among defensemen (12) and is tied with Zach Werenski and Jackson LaCombe for the most high-danger goals (six each) at the position. In terms of shots on goal by location, Makar leads defensemen by a wide margin in midrange shots on goal (97), is second in high-danger shots on goal (29) behind Werenski (33) and also ranks highly in long-range shots on goal (82; just outside top 10 in the NHL).
Makar also leads NHL defensemen in goals at each of the three strengths: even-strength goals (16), power-play goals (12) and shorthanded goals (two). He’s tied for second at the position in scoring game-opening goals (four), go-ahead goals (eight) and game-winning goals (four).
4. Offensive zone time percentage
Makar excels as a two-way defenseman, and his combination of speed and skill helps him and MacKinnon exit their zone, burst into the offensive zone regularly and maintain possession. Makar ranks in the 93rd percentile among defensemen in offensive zone time percentage (45.5 percent), ranks second in the NHL in total skating distance at all strengths (291.60 miles) and also ranks in the League's top 10 in even-strength skating distance (231.96 miles; fifth) and power-play skating distance (40.78 miles; second behind MacKinnon's 40.90 miles).
Makar ranks ninth among defensemen and 16th among all players in shot attempts differential at 5-on-5 (plus-334). The Avalanche as a team are fourth in the NHL in shot attempts percentage at 5-on-5 (53.6 percent) behind the Carolina Hurricanes (58.6 percent), Florida Panthers (54.8 percent) and Edmonton Oilers (53.9 percent).
5. Goals above projected
NHL EDGE IQ, powered by Amazon Web Services, uses "Projected Goal Rate" (PGR) to estimate the likelihood of a shot attempt becoming a goal. The NHL average PGR this season is approximately 5.0 percent across all shot attempts and 2.8 percent among defensemen.
Entering Thursday, of the 509 inference shot attempts (excluding shots greater than 60 feet, those beyond the goal line and empty-net attempts) by Makar this season, his actual goal rate (5.30 percent) far exceeds his PGR (3.71 percent), given the goalie's positioning, puck movement and traffic at the time of release.
The result is Makar scoring 27 goals on those 509 inference shot attempts, while he was projected to score only 18.9 times. That mark of 8.1 goals above projected (GAP) so far this season ranks first at his position and 10th among all skaters in the 50th percentile and above for shot attempts. The next-closest defensemen in GAP is Jakob Chychrun of the Washington Capitals (7.6).
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More: NHL EDGE stats on Makar
