NHL EDGE stats behind Sabres-Lightning 8-7 thriller

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we break down the advanced stats behind the Buffalo Sabres’ 8-7 win against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Sunday.

The Buffalo Sabres defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning, 8-7, on Sunday to move into first place in the Atlantic Division, and the game featured plenty of offensive fireworks and advanced stats highlights.

The Sabres-Lightning matchup was the 16th time in NHL history and 10th time in the expansion era (since 1967-68) where both teams combined for at least seven goals in multiple periods of a single game (second and third) and the first such game since 1992. The teams combined for 15 goals and 70 shots on goal in the game, with Buffalo having a 42-28 shots on goal advantage.

Buffalo forward Tage Thompson (four assists; now has 11-game point streak) led a group of seven players with at least three points in the game (other Sabres: forward Jason Zucker, defensemen Rasmus Dahlin and Bowen Byram had three each); Lightning forward Nikita Kucherov, defensemen Darren Raddysh and J.J. Moser also each had three-point games. It was the first time since 2007 that an NHL game featured that many players with three or more points.

The Sabres led the game 3-0 and 4-1 before the Lightning scored five unanswered goals to take a 6-4 lead. Then, Buffalo later overcame a 7-5 deficit to win in regulation by scoring the final three goals of the game over the final 8:57, capped by Josh Doan’s second goal with 4:17 left. With seven straight wins and an NHL-best 28-5-2 record over their past 35 games since Dec. 9, 2025, Buffalo is among the top five in the League standings at this stage of the season or later for the first time since their Presidents’ Trophy-winning season in 2006-07. The Sabres are also now leading their division this late in the season for the first time since 2009-10.

There were 102 total penalty minutes in the game and six special teams goals, five scored by the Sabres (four on power play, one shorthanded), highlighted by Doan’s go-ahead power-play goal. It was Buffalo’s most special teams goals in a single game since Nov. 8, 2011.

Here are some advanced stats takeaways surrounding the Lightning-Sabres thriller, which was arguably the game of the year across the NHL this season:

Shot speed

Raddysh had the hardest shot of the game at 98.64 miles per hour; it was the hardest shot by any player across the seven NHL games on Sunday. Raddysh, who had two 90-plus mph shots in the game, leads the NHL with 75 such attempts this season (34 more than next-closest player).

Buffalo had 16 shot attempts of at least 80 mph, while Tampa Bay had eight such attempts. Thompson and Raddysh were tied for the most 80-plus mph attempts in the game (four each). There were four shot attempts of at least 90 mph in the game, two by Raddysh and one each by Thompson and Dahlin. Thompson leads NHL forwards in 90-plus mph shot attempts (31) this season, has the fifth-hardest shot attempt at the position (97.94 mph) and ranks in the 98th percentile in average shot speed (64.63 mph).

Skating speed

Buffalo had 26 speed bursts of at least 20 mph, led by forward Beck Malenstyn having the fastest speed burst of the game (22.19 mph). Malenstyn leads the Sabres with 13 speed bursts of at least 22 mph this season, which ranks in the 96th percentile among forwards.

Forward Ryan McLeod, who had an assist in the game, led all players in the game with six 20-plus mph speed bursts; he ranks eighth in the entire NHL with 250 bursts of at least 20 mph this season. Lightning forward Brandon Hagel, who had a goal and an assist in the game, had the fastest speed burst for the Lightning (22.15 mph). He ranks among the forward leaders in 22-plus mph speed bursts (11; 93rd percentile) and 20-plus mph bursts (138; 90th percentile).

Goals off the rush

Per NHL EDGE IQ, there were six goals (four by Buffalo, two by Tampa Bay) scored off the rush, defined as goals that occur within five seconds of the puck crossing the offensive blue line. Both of Zucker’s goals were scored off the rush, including his goal that tied the game, 7-7, with 5:31 left in the third period.

Projected goal rate

Per NHL EDGE IQ, "Projected Goal Rate" (PGR) is a metric used to estimate the likelihood of a shot attempt becoming a goal based on several factors, including shooting distance from the goal line, the time since the puck crossed the meridian prior to the shot and any defensive traffic in front of the net. For context, anything at or above a PGR of 12.0 percent is considered a high-probability attempt, while anything below a PGR of 5.0 percent is considered a low-probability attempt.

Doan's game-winning goal late in the third period had the highest PGR of any goal in the Sabres-Lightning game (64.54 percent; extremely high-probability attempt). The lowest-probability attempt on a goal in the game came from Kucherov (PGR of 1.18 percent), who scored Tampa Bay's only power-play goal of the game in the second period to cut Buffalo's lead to 4-2.

The Sabres and Lightning both exceeded their projected goals (4.22 by Buffalo, 3.45 by Tampa Bay) in the game. Buffalo scored on five of its 10 high-probability shots in the game, while Tampa Bay scored on three of its seven high-probability shots.