State Your Case: Panthers, Lightning heading into Stanley Cup Playoffs

Florida has been the hotbed of hockey the past five seasons.

In that time span, the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Florida Panthers have combined to win the Stanley Cup three times and one of them gone to the Stanley Cup Final each year.

They appear to be on a collision course to play in the Eastern Conference First Round this season, but first there is regular-season business to take care of.

They play for the last time this season at Amalie Arena on Tuesday (7:30 p.m. ET; SCRIPPS, ESPN, SN360, TVAS). The Panthers (47-30-4) are locked into the No. 3 seed in the Atlantic Divison, while the Lightning (46-26-8) can still win the division, entering Tuesday four points behind the first-place Toronto Maple Leafs.

If the Maple Leafs get one total point in their two final games, the Lightning and Panthers will play each other in the Stanley Cup Playoffs for a second straight year, but the Lightning would have home-ice advantage this time around.

These behemoths have faced off in the postseason three times since 2021, when the Lightning eliminated the Panthers in six games of the opening round. Tampa Bay swept the 2022 Eastern Conference Second Round, and Florida won the 2024 first round in five games en route to its first Stanley Cup championship.

But that was in the past. Which is the better team heading into the 2025 playoffs? That is the question before senior writer Dan Rosen and staff writer Tracey Myers in the latest edition of State Your Case.

Myers: The Panthers are a machine, and I mean that in every way. First, full marks for where they are this season, but their performance is that much greater considering they're coming off two consecutive trips to the Stanley Cup Final. That's not a lot of rest time, but despite that, the Panthers have been strong all season and are playing great hockey entering the final week. I know the Atlantic Division title is out of reach, but it's no big deal. The Panthers are doing all the right things and look poised for another long playoff run.

Rosen: I went straight to the start of Tracey's fourth sentence in her strong opening salvo. "That's not a lot of rest time, but despite that…" But nothing. Sorry, Tracey. Had to do it. I don't feel there can be a "despite that" when it comes to the Panthers and rest and how much hockey they've played. Yes, my argument is for the Lightning in this debate, but part of my reasoning is that the Panthers might be the most vulnerable of the eight teams in the Stanley Cup Playoffs from the East because of how much hockey they've played: 290 games in 916 days since Oct. 13, 2022. Moreover, they've been playing without forwards Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Bennett, and defensemen Aaron Ekblad and Dmitry Kulikov. Ekblad won't play until Game 3 of the first round because of his suspension. Are we assuming that Tkachuk and Kulikov are just going to be able to flip the switch after not playing for a while, especially Tkachuk, who will miss the last 25 games of the regular season? It is asking a lot. The Lightning do not have the same issues. They have 20 wins in 31 games (20-6-5) since Jan. 30. They're healthy. They're playing well. They have elite goaltending with Andrei Vasilevskiy, who should be a finalist for the Vezina Trophy given to the League's top goalie. They have arguably the Hart Trophy winner this season in forward Nikita Kucherov. Victor Hedman should garner Norris Trophy votes as the League's top defenseman. And they too have experience, a championship pedigree and mentality.

Myers: Sure, it's been a lot of hockey. I thought it was going to catch up to them too, but since it hasn't yet…. As for that switch flip, it could pretty darn quick, especially with Tkachuk. It's playoff time and Tkachuk is drawn to the postseason like a shark to chum in the water. Bennett returned Monday, so no worries there on my end. Brad Marchand is settling into his new surroundings and speaking of a guy hungry for a long playoff run after the Boston Bruins were eliminated in the second round by the Panthers last year and the opening round in 2023. Same goes for defenseman Seth Jones, who has been dying to get back to the postseason. Listen, all due respect to the Lightning. They're great, they're fun, they're healthy, but I'm with Sergei Bobrovsky, Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart and the rest of the Panthers, who despite a lot of hockey are determined to repeat.

Rosen: All good and fair points by you, Tracey, but now it's my turn to really dig into the Lightning. Kucherov. Vasilevskiy. Hedman. That's a pretty darn good starting point. We know what they can do, how dangerous Kucherov is, how sound and smart and savvy Hedman is and how well positioned and big Vasilevskiy (6-foot-4, 228 pounds) is in the net. Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel have proven to be the perfect linemates and power-play mates for Kucherov: Net-drivers who are smart and elite with the puck. It doesn't get better as a top line. Brandon Hagel is a 35-goal, 90-point player. Anthony Cirelli (27) and Nick Paul (22) each have at least 20 goals. The Lightning's top-six forward group is as good as any in the NHL. I also like the Lightning in this debate because of how they consistently improved as the season went on and filled the depth holes. Yanni Gourde and Oliver Bjorkstrand were strong additions before the 2025 NHL Trade Deadline on March 7. Unfortunately, Bjorkstrand is week to week with a lower-body injury and likely won't be able to play at the start of the playoffs. That hurts, but the Lightning are deeper and better now than they were six weeks ago. They're ready for a long postseason run and motivated after losing in the first round the past two seasons. Add it all up and put it against a team that has played more hockey than any other in the League the past 2 1/2 years, a team that is compromised with some injuries going into the playoffs, and it's clear which team is better right now.