EDGE stats behind Marchand’s clutch goal-scoring for Panthers

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we look at the underlying metrics behind Florida Panthers forward Brad Marchand’s clutch goal-scoring in the Stanley Cup Final.

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The Florida Panthers acquired veteran forward Brad Marchand for his Stanley Cup Playoff experience during their title defense, and the move has paid dividends all postseason long, especially in their championship series rematch against the Edmonton Oilers.

Marchand, who was acquired by the Panthers from the Boston Bruins prior to the NHL Trade Deadline, has scored three goals in two games during the 2025 Stanley Cup Final, including one in double overtime of their 5-4 win in Game 2 to tie the best-of-7 series, 1-1.

Each of Marchand’s two goals in Game 2 came on breakaways, giving him seven goals this postseason (second on Panthers behind Sam Bennett’s 13). The 37-year-old, who won a championship as a rookie with the Bruins in 2011 and is looking for another title in his 13th career trip to the postseason, became the second player at 37 or older to score in each of the first two games of a Stanley Cup Final, joining Montreal Canadiens defenseman Larry Robinson (1989 against Calgary Flames).

Marchand’s first goal in Game 2 came shorthanded and gave Florida a 4-3 lead in the second period; it was his second career shorthanded goal in the Cup Final, tying an NHL record, and came exactly 14 years after his first -- which came with the Bruins against the Vancouver Canucks in Game 3 of the 2011 Cup Final.

Playing in his fourth career Stanley Cup Final (2011, 2013, 2019, 2025), Marchand became the first player in NHL history to score a shorthanded goal followed by an overtime winner in the same Cup Final game. It was Marchand’s fifth overtime goal of his playoff career, tying current Oilers forward Corey Perry, Panthers teammate Carter Verhaeghe and Detroit Red Wings forward Patrick Kane for the most among active players. Only Joe Sakic (eight) and Maurice Richard (six) have more overtime playoff goals in history.

Marchand ranks fourth among active players in career playoff goals (63) behind only Washington Capitals forward Alex Ovechkin (77) and Pittsburgh Penguins teammates Sidney Crosby (71) and Evgeni Malkin (67). Here are three underlying numbers behind Marchand’s clutch goal-scoring prowess which has put the Panthers three wins from repeating as Cup champions:

1. High-danger goals, shots by location

Marchand leads the Panthers with five high-danger shots on goal through the first two games of the Stanley Cup Final (no other Florida player has more than two high-danger shots on goal) and is tied with Oilers forwards Connor McDavid and Trent Frederic (five each) for the most in the series. While McDavid and Frederic have been unable to convert on any of their high-danger opportunities so far, all three of Marchand’s goals have come from high-danger areas, tied with Oilers forward Leon Draisaitl (three) for the most in the series.

Marchand is tied for second on Florida in high-danger goals (five) this postseason behind Bennett (seven) and ranks tied for fourth in the NHL in that category. The Panthers lead all playoff teams in high-danger goals (45; including six in Stanley Cup Final) and high-danger shooting percentage (31.7).

Marchand also ranks among the NHL leaders in midrange shots on goal this postseason (12; 92nd percentile), further illustrating his preference to shoot from within the face-off dots, where most goals across the League have been scored this postseason.

2. Skating distance at all strengths

Marchand ranks 10th among forwards in total skating distance this postseason (54.29 miles) thanks to his versatility in playing at all strengths and quickly gaining the trust of coach Paul Maurice after making his Panthers debut near the end of the regular season. Marchand also ranks highly among forwards this postseason in skating distance at even strength (45.64 miles; eighth at position), on the power play (4.85 miles; 85th percentile) and penalty kill (3.79 miles; 88th percentile).

Marchand has been on the ice for 20 goals scored by the Panthers and only seven allowed at even strength this postseason; that plus-13 on-ice even-strength goal differential ranks second among all NHL skaters behind only his frequent linemate Anton Lundell (plus-14) this postseason. He has 13 points at 5-on-5 this postseason, tied with frequent linemates Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen for Florida’s lead and tied for second in the entire NHL behind only McDavid (17) during the 2025 postseason.

3. Goals off the rush, “Projected Goal Rate”

NHL EDGE IQ, powered by Amazon Web Services, uses "Projected Goal Rate" (PGR) to estimate the likelihood of a shot attempt becoming a goal. The Actual Goal Rate (AGR) of all shots this season across the League is 5.1 percent. For context, anything at or above a PGR of 12.0 percent is considered a high-probability attempt. Inferenced shot attempts exclude shots greater than 60 feet, those beyond the goal line and empty-net attempts.

Marchand had four inferenced shot attempts with a PGR of at least 12.0 percent in Game 2, the most of any player in either game this series, and scored on two of them:

• Second period (7:51 remaining): scored breakaway goal on penalty kill (PGR: 17.49 percent)
• First overtime (11:23 remaining): shot saved by Stuart Skinner (PGR: 25.94 percent)
• First overtime (11:22 remaining): rebound shot off the goal post (PGR: 25.94 percent)
• Second overtime (11:55 remaining): scored breakaway goal at even strength (PGR: 16.46 percent)

Marchand had one high-probability inferenced shot attempt in Game 1 and scored on it. His five such attempts in the series is tied with Draisaitl for the most among all players.

Both Marchand goals came off the rush, defined by NHL EDGE IQ as ones that occur within five seconds of the puck crossing the offensive blue line. Marchand had only one rush goal in 18 games this postseason prior to Game 2 but scored both of his regular-season goals with the Panthers (in 10 games) off the rush. While Edmonton’s speed might be considered a major advantage in creating scoring opportunities off the rush, both teams have scored three such goals so far this series.

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More EDGE stats on Marchand