McKenna, Stenberg top candidates for Maple Leafs with No. 1 pick in NHL Draft

BUFFALO -- Gavin McKenna or Ivar Stenberg?

When the Toronto Maple Leafs announce which left wing they are selecting with the No. 1 pick in the 2026 Upper Deck NHL Draft at KeyBank Center on Friday (7 p.m. ET; ESPN, SN, TVAS), it will end months of intrigue and suspense.

Will it be McKenna, the playmaking phenom from Penn State, or Stenberg, an uber talented forward who played with Frolunda in the Swedish Hockey League?

But even after that franchise-altering decision is made, there will still be plenty of suspense and intrigue, with the true story of this draft possibly being how quickly teams pivot to grab a premier defenseman.

Many believe there are two future No. 1 defensemen in this draft in Chase Reid of Sault Ste. Marie and Carson Carels of Prince George, and three more top-pairing defensemen in Keaton Verhoeff of the University of North Dakota, Daxon Rudolph of Prince Albert and Alberts Smits of Muchen in Germany's top division.

It all starts with Toronto, which won the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery despite an 8.5 percent chance. The Maple Leafs will pick first for the third time and the first since selecting center Auston Matthews in the 2016 NHL Draft, also held in Buffalo.

The San Jose Sharks won the second drawing of the Draft Lottery, moving up from ninth position to the second overall pick, marking their third consecutive draft with a top two pick after Macklin Celebrini (No. 1 in 2024) and Michael Misa (No. 2 in 2025).

The Vancouver Canucks have the No. 3 selection, followed by the Chicago Blackhawks (No. 4), New York Rangers (No. 5), Calgary Flames (No. 6), Seattle Kraken (No. 7), Winnipeg Jets (No. 8), Florida Panthers (No. 9) and Nashville Predators (No. 10).

The Blackhawks are in line to make a top four selection in the draft for the fourth consecutive year, following Connor Bedard (No. 1, 2023), Artyom Levshunov (No. 2, 2024) and Anton Frondell (No. 3, 2025).

Rounds 2-7 will be Saturday (11 a.m. ET; NHLN, ESPN+, SN).

The Maple Leafs haven't publicly committed to picking McKenna, but it will be tough to pass on a franchise-type forward. That critical decision will be made by Toronto general manager John Chayka, who was hired May 3, along with senior executive adviser of hockey operations Mats Sundin.

"It's not every day you get a chance to make the first overall selection and to do it in a market like Toronto, with obviously the tradition and the history and the expectation of excellence, I think makes it really unique," Chayka said.

The GM visited the McKenna family in Whitehorse, Yukon, prior to the NHL Scouting Combine, and Sundin, per Chayka, "has a good book on (Stenberg) over several years now and has spent time with him in Sweden as well."

Toronto failed to qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs this season, ending a streak of nine consecutive playoff appearances dating to the 2016-1McKenna (5-foot-11, 170 pounds) was a top 10 Hobey Baker finalist as a Penn State freshman and set nine school records. Before that, he torched the Western Hockey League for two seasons with Medicine Hat, won Canadian Hockey League Player of the Year and authored a 54-game point streak.

"I like the fact he went out and challenged himself this year by playing in college," Central Scouting's senior Western scout John Williams said. "We all know he's not big and strong yet, so college hockey was not going to be easy for him. He's so smart and skilled that he was able to produce exceptionally well."

The comparison to prime Patrick Kane fits because McKenna doesn't just put up points, he bends the game. He creates delay, manipulates defenders, and sees seams before they open. McKenna finished tied for fifth in the NCAA with 51 points (15 goals, 36 assists) and was second with 1.46 points per game in 35 games this season.

The 18-year-old was the most prominent of 175 players who made the jump from the CHL to the NCAA this season and is expected to be the first men's ice hockey player from Penn State to be selected in the first round of the NHL Draft.

Stenberg (5-11, 190), No. 1 on NHL Central Scouting's final ranking of International skaters, has enough supporters that some draft boards have placed him right there with, or even ahead of, McKenna. He had 33 points (11 goals, 22 assists) in 43 games for Frolunda, scoring the most points in a season by an 18-year-old SHL player since Daniel Sedin (42) and Henrik Sedin (34) in 1998-99.

"He's exceptionally smart," NHL Director of European Scouting Jukka-Pekka Vuorinen said. "High hockey IQ, elite awareness and decision-making. He's a highly skilled playmaker-scorer hybrid, able to drive offense and finish. He also has a great two-way reliability, makes strong defensive reads, and has an effective retrieval and disruption game."

If there is one player in this class with a legitimate argument to upset McKenna at No. 1, it's probably Stenberg. His appeal is obvious: he's polished, mature, and already proven in a top pro league.

Still, the twist is this class is so rich with defensemen that any club picking in the top five may decide the more valuable asset is on the back end.

Remember the impact defenseman Matthew Schaefer had on the New York Islanders this season after being selected No. 1 in the 2025 NHL Draft. He won the Calder Trophy as the NHL's top rookie.

Reid (6-2, 190) of Sault Ste. Marie in the Ontario Hockey League ranked 12th among OHL defensemen with 48 points (18 goals, 30 assists) and 20 power-play points (eight goals, 12 assists) in 45 regular-season games. He's No. 2 on Central Scouting's final ranking of North American skaters.

Carels (No. 3), Verhoeff (4) and Rudolph (5) round out the top five on Central Scouting's North American list. Smits is No. 2 on Central Scouting's final ranking of International skaters.

Carels (6-2, 194) ranked fourth among WHL defensemen with 73 points (20 goals, 53 assists) and second with 32 power-play points (five goals, 27 assists) in 58 regular-season games.

"Rankings are all about projection, and while Carels might be viewed as a 'sure-bet pick,’ it's the upside or ceiling with Reid that is projected to be a little higher," NHL vice president and Central Scouting director Dan Marr said.

Verhoeff (6-4, 215), the second of five NCAA players among the top 11 skaters on Central Scouting's final ranking of North American skaters, finished with 20 points (six goals, 14 assists) and was third on his team with 43 blocked shots in 36 games as a freshman at North Dakota.

Rudolph (6-2, 205), who may have the highest ceiling of any defenseman in this draft class, was third among WHL defensemen with 78 points (28 goals, 50 assists), and first with 35 power-play points (13 goals, 22 assists) in 68 regular-season games.

Smits (6-3, 209) was the recipient of the 2026 E.J. McGuire Award of Excellence, presented annually by the League to a draft-eligible candidate who best exemplifies commitment to excellence through strength of character, competitiveness, and athleticism. He had 13 points (six goals, seven assists) in 38 games with Jukurit in Liiga, the top league in Finland, before he was loaned to Munchen in Deutsche Eishockey Liga on Feb. 25. He had one assist in five regular season DEL games and six points (two goals, four assists) in 11 playoff games.

"He can handle large minutes with confidence, and his hockey IQ is exceptional, as evidenced by his ability to read plays," Vuorinen said. "He makes intelligent first passes, and positions himself effectively in both zones."

The 18-year-old also shined on the international stage. He was the youngest player at the 2026 Winter Olympics, where he had two assists in four games for Team Latvia while averaging 18:44 of ice time. He had five points (one goal, four assists) and averaged a team-high 23:40 in ice time for seventh-place Latvia at the 2026 IIHF World Junior Championship and capped his season with four assists in 21:47 of ice time in four games for his country at the 2026 IIHF World Championship.
The draft will be decentralized for the second straight year, meaning the top prospects will be there, but team executives, coaches and scouts will instead gather in a location in their home market or a place of their choosing.

NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman will preside over the first round of the Draft, officially welcoming players to the NHL when they hit the stage.

The St. Louis Blues have three picks in the first round. The Calgary Flames are one of six teams with two first-round selections, along with the Sharks, the Canucks, the Rangers, the Kraken, and the Washington Capitals.

The Ottawa Senators will receive the No. 32 pick as part of a modified penalty imposed for the 2021 trade of forward Evgenii Dadonov.