EDGE stats behind Rantanen’s heroics in 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we break down the advanced metrics behind Dallas Stars wing Mikko Rantanen’s heroics in the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

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Mikko Rantanen’s legendary performance in the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs has carried over into the Western Conference Second Round, with the Dallas Stars forward establishing himself as the favorite for the Conn Smythe Trophy as most valuable player of the postseason.

The 28-year-old was traded twice this season (first by Colorado Avalanche to Carolina Hurricanes; then from Hurricanes to Stars) before signing an eight-year contract with Dallas. Rantanen made waves around the hockey world with his Game 7 hat trick and four points in the third period to defeat Colorado, his former team, and help the Stars advance. Then, Rantanen scored another hat trick in his next game on the road against elite goalie Connor Hellebuyck and the Winnipeg Jets in Dallas’ series-opening win.

After the Stars were shutout in Game 2, Rantanen extended his NHL lead with his ninth goal of the postseason and added primary assists on two more Dallas goals in their 5-2 win in Game 3. During Rantanen’s dominant stretch, he totaled 17 points (nine goals, eight assists) in six games, the third player in the past 30 years to reach that point total over a span of six postseason games, joining Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid during the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs. He also set an NHL postseason record by either scoring or having an assist on 13 straight team goals.

With another assist in the Stars' Game 4 win on Wednesday, Rantanen leads the NHL with 19 points (nine goals, 10 assists) this postseason. Here are three underlying reasons behind Rantanen’s postseason heroics:

1. Goals and shots on goal by location

Rantanen has excelled in both high-danger and midrange areas this postseason. Not including his wraparound goal (behind the net) in Game 7 of the first round, Rantanen ranks among the NHL leaders in the following shot location categories (percentiles below are among forwards):

• High-danger shots on goal: 10 (91st percentile)
• High-danger goals: 4 (98th percentile)
• Midrange shots on goal: 10 (94th percentile)
• Midrange goals: 4 (99th percentile; tied with former teammate Nathan MacKinnon and Alex Ovechkin for NHL lead)

Five of Rantanen’s nine goals have either come from the front of (four) or behind the net (one), and three of his four midrange goals have come from the middle of the ice. Rantanen is proving to the hockey world that he wasn’t solely a product of MacKinnon’s elite play and also that, despite the flux of playing for three different teams this season, he is clearly still one of the League’s best power forwards.

2. Total skating distance

Rantanen’s total skating distance (33.02 miles) ranks ninth at the position (96th percentile) this postseason. He also ranks highly in even-strength skating distance (28.64 miles; 98th percentile; fourth among NHL forwards) and power-play skating distance (4.32 miles; 89th percentile) this playoffs.

Rantanen’s versatility has directly translated to his goal-scoring outburst; he leads the NHL in even-strength goals (seven) this postseason and has also scored two power-play goals, one behind the NHL leaders (seven players, including teammate Roope Hintz have three PPG this postseason).

3. Projected goals (quality and quantity of attempts)

NHL EDGE IQ, powered by Amazon Web Services, uses "Projected Goal Rate" (PGR) to estimate the likelihood of a shot attempt becoming a goal at the point of puck release. The actual goal rate (AGR) of all shots this season across the League is 5.1 percent. For context, anything at or above a PGR of 12.0 percent is considered a high-probability attempt. Among inferenced shot attempts (excluding shots greater than 60 feet, those beyond the goal line and empty-net attempts), Rantanen has an average PGR of 8.27 percent this postseason.

In terms of projected goals, or the sum of projected goal rate across all of a player’s attempts (assessment of quantity and quality; average PGR times inferenced shot attempts), Rantanen ranks third in the NHL this postseason (4.55; average projected goal rate of 8.27 percent on 55 inferenced shot attempts) behind Edmonton Oilers teammates Leon Draisaitl (5.69; average PGR of 10.54 percent on 54 inferenced shot attempts) and Zach Hyman (4.57; average PGR of 8.79 on 52 inferenced shot attempts). In summary, Rantanen has a high quantity of shot attempts this postseason, and many of those have been high-quality attempts.

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