NHL EDGE stats to watch for in 2026 Winter Classic

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we identify key advanced metrics to watch for when the Florida Panthers host the New York Rangers in the 2026 Discover NHL Winter Classic at loanDepot park in Miami on Friday (8 p.m. ET; HBO MAX, truTV, TNT, SNW, SNO, SNE, TVAS).

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1. Florida’s high-danger offense

The Panthers, who have won back-to-back Stanley Cup titles, are among the NHL leaders in high-danger goals (72; tied for second), high-danger shots on goal (341; seventh) and high-danger shooting percentage (21.1; seventh) this season. Florida’s high-danger goal leader is forward Brad Marchand (14; tied for fourth in NHL); the Panthers have three players with double-digit high-danger goal totals this season (Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett have 10 each), tied with the Dallas Stars for the most in the League.

The Panthers are also among the leaders in offensive zone time percentage (42.6; tied for fourth) this season despite being without their top forwards Matthew Tkachuk and Aleksander Barkov all season because of long-term injuries, while the Rangers are close behind (41.9; sixth). Tkachuk, who's nearing a return but not expected to play in the Winter Classic, was among the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs leaders in high-danger goals (five; 97th percentile among forwards) and high-danger shots on goal (14; 91st percentile).

Rangers defenseman Adam Fox, who returned from injury Wednesday, ranks eighth in the entire NHL in offensive zone time percentage (48.1) this season. The Rangers also feature players with strong high-danger shots on goal totals in forwards Will Cuylle (36; 90th percentile) and Mika Zibanejad (35; 89th percentile); J.T. Miller, who’s currently injured, leads them in high-danger shots on goal (38; 92nd percentile).

2. Panarin’s elite advanced metrics

Rangers forward Artemi Panarin, who’s in the final season of his seven-year contract (potential unrestricted free agent after this season), leads New York in goals (14), assists (27), points (41 in 41 games) and shots on goal (125) this season. Since 2019-20, Panarin ranks fifth in the entire NHL in points (591 points in 471 games).

In terms of advanced stats, Panarin ranks in the 95th percentile or higher among forwards in the following categories:

• Average shot speed: 63.92 mph (97th percentile)
• Total skating distance: 135.94 miles (99th percentile; ninth among forwards)
• Midrange shots on goal: 49 (98th percentile; tied for 10th among forwards)
• Midrange goals: 8 (97th percentile)
• Long-range shots on goal: 34 (99th percentile; second among forwards)
• Long range goals: 2 (97th percentile; tied for fifth among forwards)
• Offensive zone time percentage: 46.5 (95th percentile)

3. Goalie spotlight: Bobrovsky vs. Shesterkin

Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky, who recently moved into eighth on the all-time goalie wins list (446), has appeared in one outdoor game (2012 Winter Classic with Philadelphia Flyers; lost 3-2 to Rangers) in his NHL career. While the 37-year-old is below the League average in high-danger save percentage (.778) and midrange save percentage (.884) this season, Bobrovsky has excelled against perimeter shots (.975 long-range save percentage), ranking in the 87th percentile in long-range saves (stopped 153 of 157 long-range shots faced).

Bobrovsky has the support of Gustav Forsling, the only defenseman in the NHL who ranks in the top 10 of both hardest shot (100.41 mph; sixth) and max skating speed (23.34 mph; seventh). The Panthers will play in their first-ever outdoor game, while the Rangers are set for their sixth outdoor game appearance (5-0-0; 2-0-0 in Winter Classic).

New York goalie Igor Shesterkin, who turned 30 years old on Dec. 30, leads the NHL in starts with greater than a .900 save percentage (21) this season. Shesterkin also leads the NHL in midrange saves (250) and long-range saves (182; tied with Spencer Knight of the Chicago Blackhawks), while ranking tied for third in high-danger saves (202).

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