Panthers, Oilers face tough task of returning to Cup Final

The Stanley Cup Playoffs begin this weekend with mixed opinions on how likely it is for the last two teams standing last season to be in the Stanley Cup Final again this season.

The defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers and the Edmonton Oilers, last season's runner-up, each are dealing with some major issues as they enter their respective first-round series, Florida against the Tampa Bay Lightning and Edmonton against the Los Angeles Kings.

"There's nothing harder in sports than to win when you're expected to win," Hall of Fame forward and ESPN analyst Mark Messier said during a media conference call Tuesday.

The Panthers won only six of their final 16 regular-season games (6-9-1), scoring 2.00 goals per game. They went 3-6-1 in their last 10 with the same 2.00 goals per game.

Florida hasn't had Matthew Tkachuk in the lineup since Feb. 8 because of a lower-body injury, or defenseman Aaron Ekblad since March 8 because of a 20-game suspension for violating the terms of the NHL/NHLPA Performance Enhancing Substances Program.

Tkachuk is hoping to play Game 1 against the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena on Tuesday (8:30 p.m. ET; ESPN, SN360, TVAS, SCRIPPS, FDSNSUN), but he missed the last 25 games of the regular season because of the injury he sustained during the 4 Nations Face-Off.

Ekblad isn't eligible to return until Game 3 against Tampa Bay.

"You get [Tkachuk] back in there, obviously he's a major difference-maker, and getting Aaron Ekblad back is too, but two games is two games," TNT broadcaster Eddie Olczyk said on the "NHL @TheRink" podcast this week. "But can you just turn it on? It's a different game. They're built for the playoffs. We know that. The team they have assembled obviously has experience with proven winners and a coach that knows what he's doing. But it's, can they find that offensive swagger that has seemed to have eluded them here?"

ESPN's Ray Ferraro said his concern with the Panthers is that "their lineup has been all over the map for months."

In addition to Tkachuk and Ekblad, forwards Aleksander Barkov, Sam Bennett, Sam Reinhart, Anton Lundell and Brad Marchand, and defenseman Dmitry Kulikov all missed multiple games down the stretch of the regular season.

"They've had periods of play where they look like the old Florida Panthers and periods of play where they don't look anything like their team," Ferraro said. "They're not the same team to me. The team last year had a 35-goal Carter Verhaeghe, and he's had a really difficult year. Now, can he catch lightning again, because they need him? I don't know. I just feel a lot of uncertainty around them. I don't doubt them, but I feel uncertainty and there feels like there's a real positive vibe and feeling around Tampa Bay again. That's going to be a hard series for Florida."

The feeling is the same about the Oilers, who for the fourth consecutive year will play the Kings in the Western Conference First Round. Game 1 is at Crypto.com Arena on Monday (10 p.m. ET; ESPN2, SN, TVAS2, FDSNW).

"I'm just not as optimistic about Edmonton as I have been in the past with how strong the West is," ESPN analyst and former NHL defenseman P.K. Subban said.

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl haven't played in the same game since March 18. McDavid missed nine of the last 13 games and Draisaitl sat 11 of the last 14. Both should be good to go for Game 1 against the Kings.

But defenseman Mattias Ekholm is expected to miss the first round because of a lower-body injury.

"If Ekholm is out, that is bad news for the Oilers," Messier said. "He's a key piece to their team the way it's constructed on the back end. A different player than (Miro) Heiskanen, but no less important to a team than Heiskanen is to Dallas."

Forwards Zach Hyman (three games) and Trent Frederic (six games), and defensemen Jake Walman (five games) and Troy Stecher (two games) also missed time down the stretch. Other than Frederic, they're all expected to play Game 1 in Los Angeles.

Frederic has played in one game, skating just 7:10, since the Oilers acquired him in a trade from the Boston Bruins on March 4.

Evander Kane hasn't played all season because of surgery to repair a sports hernia and a knee injury. The forward might return during the playoffs at some point, but when is not known.

"It takes an unbelievable toll on the team physically to get there [to the Stanley Cup Final] once," Messier said. "Edmonton had been knocking on the door. They finally break through last year and you can see the toll that it took on that team this year. I think McDavid has looked very fatigued, probably more emotionally than physically. Maybe the blessing in disguise was having him get hurt and having to sit down for a minute because my guess is he doesn't like to sit down. But I think they learned last year how hard it is to win and how many players it takes to contribute in order for a team to move on and get to win the Stanley Cup."

Even if Edmonton has a healthier lineup in Game 1 and can get Frederic and Kane in at some point during the first round, there still is a question of, will it be enough against Los Angeles?

The Kings have been the best team in the NHL at home this season (31-6-4, 66 points) and were second in the regular season in goals-against per game (2.48). They enter the playoffs having won four of their final five games (4-1-0).

"[The Oilers] are relying on older players and guys who are a little bit lengthy in their careers now to step up against a team like L.A. that is hungry, that has young players that are champing at the bit to get over that hump," Subban said. "That's what you're colliding into in the playoffs and it's a much different feeling for the Oilers now going into a playoff round than it was three or four years ago. There's an expectation there and everybody is gunning for you."