U.S. Olympic roster choices not just based on stats: Guerin

When the United States announced its men's hockey roster Friday, it left off many of the top American scorers in the NHL this season.

General manager Bill Guerin, coach Mike Sullivan and the rest of the leadership group did it for a reason. But it's fair to wonder whether Team USA will bring enough offense to the Olympic Winter Games Milano Cortina 2026.

Rosters are limited to 25 players for the tournament Feb. 11-22. The United States announced 14 forwards, eight defensemen and three goalies.

Eight of the top 15 U.S. forwards in points didn't make the team. The list is headlined by Jason Robertson of the Dallas Stars, first with 48. But it also includes Alex DeBrincat of the Detroit Red Wings, tied for fourth with 41; Cole Caufield of the Montreal Canadiens, seventh with 40; Trevor Zegras of the Philadelphia Flyers, eighth with 39; and Troy Terry and Cutter Gauthier of the Anaheim Ducks, tied for ninth with 38 each.

Seven of the top 14 U.S. forwards in goals didn't make it, including Robertson, second with 24; DeBrincat, tied for third with 21; Caufield, tied for fifth with 20; and Gauthier, seventh with 19.

Four of the top eight U.S. defensemen in points didn't make it: Lane Hutson of the Canadiens, tied for first with 40; John Carlson of the Washington Capitals and Shayne Gostisbehere of the Carolina Hurricanes, tied for fourth with 29; and Adam Fox of the New York Rangers, tied for sixth with 28.

Six of the top 10 U.S. defensemen in goals didn't make it: Justin Faulk of the St. Louis Blues, second with 10; Carlson, tied for third with eight; and Hutson, Mattias Samuelsson of the Buffalo Sabres, and Jacob Trouba and Jackson LaCombe of the Ducks, tied for sixth with six each.

"Those guys are all great players too, and I understand that," Guerin said. "But we have to make a team. I've said before, like, if we're doing it like that, then you don't need a general manager. You don't need a coach. Like, just do it by stats."

The U.S. talent pool is deeper than ever before. This speaks to that. And Guerin is right: The leadership group must consider how forward lines, defense pairings and special teams units will fit together, and they must consider how they'll do it under pressure in a best-on-best tournament. This won't be regular-season hockey. Body of work matters more than recent production.

Canada faced similar dilemmas. Among the players who didn't make Team Canada: six of the top 15 forwards in points, seven of the top 15 forwards in goals, six of the top eight defensemen in points and eight of the top nine defensemen in goals.

The United States came close to winning the 4 Nations Face-Off last season. After defeating Canada 3-1 in Montreal earlier in the tournament, the U.S. took Canada to overtime in the championship game in Boston before losing 3-2.

Of the 25 players on the U.S. Olympic roster, 21 played at 4 Nations, and Minnesota Wild defenseman Quinn Hughes would have if not for injury.

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"I liked the way we played," Guerin said. "Everybody was together. Everybody played the right way, adhered to the game plan that Mike and his coaching staff brought to the table. But I think the biggest thing for me was the chemistry, and I think the chemistry allowed the guys to play the way that they did."

Here's the argument for more offense, though.

The United States hasn't won an Olympic gold medal in men's hockey since 1980 and a best-on-best tournament since the World Cup of Hockey in 1996. Canada has won four straight best-on-best tournaments. In three of those, the U.S. has lost an elimination game to Canada by one goal -- 3-2 in overtime in the gold medal game of the 2010 Vancouver Olympics, 1-0 in the semifinals of the 2014 Sochi Olympics and then the final at 4 Nations.

Some of the Americans' best players had chances in overtime of the final at 4 Nations and failed to score -- Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews, Vegas Golden Knights center Jack Eichel, Ottawa Senators forward Brady Tkachuk. Had one of them cashed in, the narrative might be different. But they didn't.

The tournament was so tight-checking in general, most of the U.S. stars struggled to produce. You know it's going to be tight-checking in the Olympics when the tournament reaches the medal round.

Does that underscore the need for defense and grit, or does that mean the United States should have included at least a little more skill? Does it need one or two more goals to put it over the top, especially if it meets Canada again?

"We actually have to build a team," Guerin said. "We have to fill roles. We have certain responsibilities that go up and down the lineup that we need players that are elite in those categories.

"Listen, there are so many guys that are not on this roster that could be on this roster. I understand that, and those decisions don't come lightly. Take my word. Those are not fun phone calls to make. But in the end, we have a job to do, and we're putting together a team, not just a group of individuals. It's a team."

Is it a gold-medal team? Ultimately, that will be answered on the ice.