NHL EDGE stats: Impact of Tkachuk’s return on Panthers

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we identify the key advanced metrics surrounding the return of Florida Panthers forward Matthew Tkachuk.

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Matthew Tkachuk has returned to the Florida Panthers lineup, and his strong advanced stats have the back-to-back champions equipped for another Stanley Cup run.

The forward, who missed the first half of this season after having surgery to repair a torn adductor muscle and sports hernia Aug. 22, had four shot attempts (three of at least 60 miles per hour) and three shots on goal in 20:58 against the San Jose Sharks on Monday. Tkachuk, who had 57 points (22 goals, 35 assists) in 52 regular-season games last season, was injured while playing for the United States at the 4 Nations Face-Off last season; he missed the final 25 games of the regular season but returned for Game 1 of the playoffs.

He had 23 points (eight goals, 15 assists) and played in all 23 playoff games as the Panthers repeated as Stanley Cup champions last season. Since being traded to Florida from the Calgary Flames prior to the 2022-23 season, Tkachuk leads the Panthers in regular-season points per game (1.20; 254 in 211 games), assists (166) and shots on goal per game (3.59).

During his three postseasons with the Panthers, Tkachuk leads Florida and is fourth in the NHL with 69 points (25 goals, 44 assists) in 67 games, helping Florida make three straight Stanley Cup Final appearances. Tkachuk, who had three points (two goals, one assist) and 12 shots on goal in three games at the 4 Nations Face-Off prior to his injury, has been selected to the United States roster for the Olympic Winter Games Milano Cortina 2026.

Here are three underlying metrics storylines behind Tkachuk’s impact on the Panthers:

1. High-danger prowess

From the start of last season to his final regular-season game (Feb. 8, 2025), Tkachuk ranked in the 96th percentile among forwards in both high-danger shots on goal (55) and high-danger goals (13). Only Sam Reinhart (15) scored more high-danger goals than Tkachuk on the Panthers during that span.

Last season, 10 of Tkachuk’s final 16 goals (regular season and Stanley Cup Playoffs combined) were high-danger goals. During the 2025 postseason, Tkachuk ranked in the 97th percentile among forwards in high-danger goals (five) and 91st percentile at the position in high-danger shots on goal (14). During the 2022-23 season, Tkachuk’s first with Panthers, he was tied for third in the NHL in high-danger goals (31) and ranked fifth in high-danger shots on goal (158).

Tkachuk, who had one high-danger shot on goal and one midrange shot on goal in his season debut Monday, could help them reach another gear offensively. While the Panthers rank 11th in high-danger goals (79) this season, they have the second-fewest such goals (seven in nine games) in the NHL since Jan. 1.

This season, the Panthers have five players with at least eight high-danger goals: Brad Marchand (14; tied for 10th in the NHL), Sam Bennett (13), Sam Reinhart (12), Carter Verhaeghe (nine) and Anton Lundell (eight). Last season, Tkachuk’s most-frequent linemates at even strength were Bennett and Verhaeghe.

2. Offensive zone time percentage

Last season, Tkachuk ranked in the 97th percentile among forwards in offensive zone time percentage at all strengths (47.5 percent) and 93rd percentile at even strength (44.2 percent) during the regular season. During the 2025 playoffs, Tkachuk ranked in the 97th percentile in offensive zone time percentage at all strengths (48.6 percent). During the 2023-24 season, Tkachuk led NHL forwards and ranked third in the League in offensive zone time percentage (49.8 percent).

Although it's a one-game sample size, Tkachuk had an offensive zone time percentage of 48.6 on Monday, which ranks in the 99th percentile among forwards.

In the absence of Tkachuk and fellow elite forward Aleksander Barkov (knee surgery; long-term injured reserve) this season, the Panthers ranked eighth in the NHL in 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage (51.9 percent through first 47 games) entering Monday. When Barkov was healthy and Tkachuk played more than half of last season, the Panthers ranked second in 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage (55.1 percent) behind the Carolina Hurricanes (58.4).

3. Power-play skating distance

Tkachuk’s return also should boost the Panthers on the power play; without Tkachuk and Barkov, Florida ranked 22nd in power-play conversion percentage (18.6 percent) prior to his season debut Monday. The Panthers were tied for 13th in that category last season (23.5 percent) and ranked eighth in 2023-24 (23.5 percent).

Although it's a one-game sample size, Tkachuk had an average shot speed of 63.09 mph in his season debut (96th percentile among forwards this season), including one power-play shot on goal.

Last season, Tkachuk ranked in the 89th percentile among forwards in power-play offensive zone time percentage (62.4 percent). During the 2025 postseason, when he was playing with a lingering injury, Tkachuk was among the leaders in the following power-play categories:

• Power-play skating distance: 11.22 miles (third among forwards and 99th percentile; fifth in the NHL).
• Power-play goals: 5 (tied with Corey Perry for most in 2025 playoffs).
• Power-play points: 11 (second in 2025 playoffs behind Leon Draisaitl’s 12).