EDGE stats: Greaves making case to be Blue Jackets’ goalie of future

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we take a look at the advanced stats behind Columbus Blue Jackets goalie Jet Greaves during their late-season push.

During a last-ditch effort by the Columbus Blue Jackets to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs, rookie goalie Jet Greaves has emerged as a possible answer to their questions at the position with strong advanced metrics.

Greaves is 6-2-2 with a .934 save percentage and two shutouts in 10 games this season and now has a .922 save percentage in 20 career NHL games. This performance by Greaves down the stretch, with the Blue Jackets essentially facing elimination over their past four games (4-0-0 with a .976 save percentage in span) has opened eyes around the League, especially with that span including wins in both ends of a weekend back-to-back set against the Eastern Conference-leading Washington Capitals.

The 24-year-old is making the case to be a potential long-term option who can help elevate a team that already has a top-10 offense (3.22 goals per game; ninth). And, although it’s a small sample size, Greaves’ performance under pressure and strong underlying metrics have kept the Blue Jackets in contention; they trail the Montreal Canadiens for the Eastern Conference second wild-card spot by two points with one game remaining for each team.

Per NHL EDGE stats, Greaves ranks in the 99th percentile in both high-danger save percentage (.892; League average: .803) and midrange save percentage (.948; League average: .887). He has had greater than a .900 save percentage in six of his 10 games this season and is getting goal support from the Blue Jackets; he ranks in the 94th percentile in both goal differential per 60 minutes (plus-1.20) and points percentage (70.0).

Greaves has stopped 38 of 39 high-danger shots faced (.974 high-danger save percentage), as well as 35 of 36 midrange shots faced (.972 midrange save percentage), over the Blue Jackets’ four wins over the past six days. He ranks first among all NHL goalies in high-danger saves and midrange saves over that span.

Although longtime starter Elvis Merzlikins is tied for 16th in wins (26 in 53 games) and 17th in start volume (52) this season, his underlying save percentage metrics are not nearly as strong compared to Greaves; Merzlikins ranks in the 72nd percentile on save percentage from high-danger areas (.816) and below the 50th percentile from midrange areas (.854). In terms of team save percentage, the Blue Jackets rank tied for 20th out of 32 teams (.890) with the trio of Merzlikins, Daniil Tarasov and Greaves this season.

While it may not be a fair comparison given Merzlikins’ heavy workload and the Blue Jackets’ average shots on goal allowed (29.8 per game; sixth most in NHL), Greaves certainly gives them an in-house option to turn to more often in the years ahead. Greaves is in the first season of a two-year, two-way contract that ends after next season (2025-26), while Merzlikins has two more years left on his contract (ends after 2026-27 season).

With a potent core of 25-and-under forwards including Adam Fantilli, Kirill Marchenko, Kent Johnson, Dmitri Voronkov and Yegor Chinakhov, along with 27-year-old defenseman Zach Werenski being one of the top contenders for the Norris Trophy, the Blue Jackets are riding the hot hand with Greaves and giving him a chance to parlay his success into next season.

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More EDGE stats for Greaves | CBJ