Atlantic Division winner debated by NHL.com staff

The race for supremacy in the Atlantic Division is going to be a sprint to the finish line.

The margins are razor thin.

The Toronto Maple Leafs (45-25-4) are atop the division entering play Wednesday, holding a one-point lead on the Tampa Bay Lightning and a two-point cushion on the Florida Panthers, who lost to the Montreal Canadiens 3-2 in overtime on Tuesday.

The Panthers (44-26-4) and Maple Leafs square off at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto on Wednesday (7:30 p.m. ET, SN, TVAS2, SCRIPPS) in a game that could go a long way toward determining how the teams will finish.

The winner of the division will almost assuredly finish second in the Eastern Conference behind the Washington Capitals, who lead the Metropolitan Division and have an 11-point advantage on the Maple Leafs and Carolina Hurricanes. So, the Atlantic Division winner would face the first wild card from the East, and the second- and third-place teams would have to face each other in the best-of-7 first round, which starts April. 19.

Toronto hasn’t won a full-season divisional title since claiming the Northeast Division in 1999-2000 and has only made it past the first round of the postseason once in the past 19 seasons.

The Panthers have won the Atlantic in two of the past three seasons and have gone to the Stanley Cup Final in back-to-back seasons, winning their first championship last season with a seven-game win against the Edmonton Oilers.

Tampa Bay (44-25-5) last won a divisional title in 2018-19 but made it to the Stanley Cup Final for three straight seasons from 2020-22, defeating the Dallas Stars and Montreal Canadiens before losing to the Colorado Avalanche three seasons ago.

The Lightning have eight games remaining, including one against the Maple Leafs and one against the Panthers in their penultimate game of the season. A game against the Ottawa Senators on Thursday is the only other game against a team in a playoff position.

The Maple Leafs have eight games left, including a two-game road trip to Florida and Tampa Bay next week. They have two other games against teams in playoff positions.

Florida has eight games left, and aside from the games against the Lightning and Maple Leafs, the only other game featuring a current playoff team is against the Senators on Saturday.

So, who will win the Atlantic Division and theoretically, at least, have the easier road through the Stanley Cup Playoffs?

We asked eight NHL.com writer for their opinions.

Florida Panthers

The Panthers remain the team to beat until officially knocked off the pedestal. Of the eight regular-season games remaining on their schedule, four are home and four are on the road, and the defending Stanley Cup champion has a winning record whether they're home or away. The NHL Trade Deadline acquisition of forward Brad Marchand is already paying dividends, particularly with the loss of Matthew Tkachuk (lower-body injury) for the remainder of the regular season. The 36-year-old forward will slip right into a role very similar to Tkachuk's, playing hard and in your face. Florida remains a battle-tested, hardened group, especially along the boards and in the trenches, and that's what it takes this time of year to come out on top. -- Mike G. Morreale, senior draft writer

Florida is built for this time of year, as evidence by its Stanley Cup win last season and a trip to the Final in 2023. With two games against the Maple Leafs in their final stretch of the season, the Panthers are well positioned to make up the points difference. Florida remains a formidable team and will be tough to eliminate in the postseason. Marchand adds another big-game player to the lineup, and I can see the Panthers winning each game against the Maple Leafs and last game of the season against the Lightning to claim the division and chart an easier path in the playoffs. All told, the Panthers have a pretty favorable schedule heading toward the playoffs. -- Derek Van Diest, staff writer

When Marchand was traded to the Panthers by the Boston Bruins on March 7, young Billy Zito, son of Florida general manager Bill Zito, told his dad that it would be great to see the feisty forward put together with fellow pests Tkachuk and Sam Bennett. A lower-body injury will keep Tkachuk out until at least the start of the playoffs later this month. As for Bennett and Marchand, the two former foes have become Florida’s “Truculent Twins,” playing on the same line and creating havoc on many a shift. Each has the pedigree for coming up big in key games, and there is no shortage of those on the radar. The Panthers have shown what it takes to cross the finish line. Tampa Bay has too, but not since it last reached the Cup Final in 2022. The Maple Leafs? They’ve won one playoff series in 21 years. That history makes it difficult to have confidence they'll maintain the division lead. -- Mike Zeisberger, staff writer

Tampa Bay Lightning

I’ll take Tampa Bay. Nikita Kucherov is red hot. He leads the NHL with 111 points (33 goals, 78 assists) in 70 games, including 19 (five goals, 14 assists) in his past nine games and 13 (three goals, 10 assists) in his past four. It’s no coincidence the Lightning have won four straight and are 7-2-1 in their past 10. The Panthers are 4-5-1 in their past 10. The Maple Leafs are 6-3-1. Tampa Bay has the easiest schedule from here; the combined points percentage of its remaining opponents is .540. For the Panthers, it’s .559. For the Maple Leafs, it’s .569. If the Lightning tie the Maple Leafs in points, they have the first tiebreaker as of now: regulation wins (38-37). The Panthers have 35. -- Nicholas J. Cotsonika, columnist

I didn’t expect the Lightning to be fighting for the top spot in the Atlantic. But here we are, with Tampa Bay one point behind Toronto and one ahead of Florida. And when I look at the schedule, I see the Lightning coming out on top, with a game each against the Maple Leafs and Panthers, but also two games against the Buffalo Sabres, two against the New York Rangers and one against the Detroit Red Wings. This is a team that has scoring I trust in Kucherov, Brayden Point, Jake Guentzel and Brandon Hagel, and goaltending I trust even more in Andrei Vasilevskiy. I believe they’ll finish the season atop the division. -- Amalie Benjamin, senior writer

I wouldn’t have thought it through the first half of the season, but the Lightning are my pick to win the Atlantic because they’re on a heater. They went into the 4 Nations Face-Off break on a roll and came out of it the same way, amassing an eight-game winning streak on each side of the tournament. They’re rolling and they’re healthy, two great things to have going for you at this time of the regular season. I know it’s going to be a tussle at the top, but I’m really impressed with the Lightning. They’re once again going to be a difficult team to face in the playoffs. -- Tracey Myers, staff writer

Toronto Maple Leafs

The Maple Leafs are in first place, and I expect them to be there when the season ends. When healthy they are the most talented team in the division -- with forwards Mitch Marner, William Nylander and Auston Matthews leading the way. And they have solid goaltending in Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz. They also have a Stanley Cup-winning coach in Craig Berube who knows how to get a team across the finish line. The last thing the Maple Leafs want to do is face either Florida or Tampa Bay in the first round of the playoffs, and they will be motivated to hold onto their lead and win the division. -- Bill Price, Editor-in-Chief

The Maple Leafs have the division lead, which immediately gives them a leg up. Games in hand are not an issue; each has eight remaining. Toronto and Florida play each other twice, including Wednesday at Scotiabank Arena, but there will be a significant difference when they meet. The Panthers go into Toronto on a back-to-back after playing in Montreal on Tuesday; it will be two full days since the Maple Leafs played. Advantage: Toronto. The Maple Leafs play at the Panthers on April 8 after having another two full days between games following a home game against the Columbus Blue Jackets on Saturday. Florida will be playing its third game in four nights when the teams meet at Amerant Bank Arena. Advantage: Toronto. The Maple Leafs overcame a mini slide in the first half of March and finished the month winning six of their last nine games (6-1-2). They'll carry that into April, take advantage of the rest and the tired Panthers and do just enough to keep their lead and finish first. -- Dan Rosen, senior writer