In the aftermath of passing Wayne Gretzky to break the NHL goals record, Alex Ovechkin pondered what would come next.
“Finally, I'm not going to have those questions, ‘When do you think you're going to break it?’” Ovechkin said after scoring his record-breaking 895th goal in the Washington Capitals’ 4-1 loss to the New York Islanders on Sunday. “It's already done. Try to figure out what the next questions are going to be.”
Ovechkin’s and the Capitals’ short-term focus will turn to sharpening their game for the start of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Beginning with hosting the Carolina Hurricanes at Capital One Arena on Thursday (7:30 p.m. ET; Disney+, HULU, ESPN+, SN1), Washington (49-19-9), which has clinched the Metropolitan Division, has five regular-season games remaining to regain the edge it seems to have lost in going 2-4-1 in its past seven.
“Our mind right now is [to] get ready for the playoffs and play the right way in the playoffs,” said Ovechkin, the Capitals captain.
For the long term, though, there are two remaining questions about the goals record: How high can Ovechkin set the bar before he retires, and will anyone be able to surpass that number?
“They say records are made to be broken,” Gretzky said Sunday. “But I’m not sure who’s going to get more goals than that.”
Ovechkin might rest for a game or two, but the 39-year-old left wing will have chance before the playoffs to add to his career and season totals -- he is fourth in the NHL with 42 goals in 61 games. What happens beyond that depends on him.
Ovechkin has another season remaining after this one on the five-year, $47.5 million contract ($9.5 million average annual value) he signed in 2021. That would give him potentially another 82 regular-season games to increase his goal total unless he decides to ride off into the sunset after this season and head home to Russia. (He has said he hopes to return to Dynamo Moscow to play after he retires from the NHL.)
If Ovechkin plays in the NHL next season, though, how much higher can he push the record?
“I don't know. You'd have to ask him that,” said Capitals center Dylan Strome, who has assisted on 21 of Ovechkin’s goals this season, including No. 895. “Obviously. 900's right there, but I don't know. I'm pretty confident to say somewhere in the 900s, I would think. We’ll see what the future brings, but the guy's the best.”
Although Ovechkin, who is in his 20th NHL season, hasn’t been immune to the effects of aging, he’s continued to find ways to score. He’s second in the NHL this season (more than one game played) in averaging 0.69 goals per game behind Edmonton Oilers forward Leon Draisaitl (0.73).
Ovechkin has no one left to chase after passing Gretzky, but he’s always been driven to score, so he could possibly add another 40-goal season -- he already has 14 -- if he stays healthy. Although he missed 16 games this season with a fractured left fibula, he missed only 35 games because of injury prior to that in his career.
“The guy can play as long as he wants,” St. Louis Blues center Brayden Schenn said. “That could be a thousand goals after he’s done, you know what I mean? That’s, obviously, going to be up to him how long he wants to play, but he’s a still a special talent.”
Ovechkin seems physically capable of playing more than one season after this one, but he has stated he’s unlikely to sign another NHL contract. If he did, though, he would likely play in an environment to succeed with the Capitals, who lead the Eastern Conference with 107 points.
“The sky’s the limit for him,” said Hockey Hall of Fame goalie Martin Brodeur, the NHL’s all-time leaders in wins (691) and shutouts (125). “If he keeps playing, and the Capitals are a good team, and they’re going to be good for a while with the players that they have, I would love to see him to try to get to 1,000. That would be crazy.”
Scoring 895 goals once sounded like a crazy idea. Ovechkin thought it was impossible until recent seasons, and doing it took remarkable consistency that will be difficult to exceed.
“It’s pretty incredible,” Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews said. “Just the will to score and the consistency and kind of everything that goes into it, it’s been fun to watch. … It’s hard to put into perspective just how many goals that really is.”
Matthews dismissed suggestions Monday that he could someday surpass Ovechkin’s total, saying, “That’s such a long way away or such a long way to go. And, you know, I don’t even think I should be in that conversation.”
Still, Matthews’ name is the one that comes up first among players when asked if anyone could break Ovechkin’s record.
“Matthews is going to be right there,” Tampa Bay Lightning forward Jake Guentzel said. “I feel like Draisaitl’s going to be there. There’s a lot of goals-scorers in this league. But if there’s one, I’d say Matthews.”
With 398 goals in 624 career games, Matthews would need to score 498 more to break the record -- if Ovechkin doesn’t score another goal. Draisaitl, who leads the NHL with 52 goals this season, is 497 from passing Ovechkin, with 399 in 790 career games. Matthews, 27, has a 0.64 goals-per-game rate in his nine NHL seasons. Draisaitl, 29, has a 0.51 goals-per-game rate in 11 NHL seasons.
Seasons might be more relevant than per-game rates, though, because games lost to injury, or any other reason, cannot be recovered.
In the simplest terms, to reach 900 goals, a player needs to average 45 goals per game for 20 seasons.
Matthews has 30 goals this season with five games remaining, putting him on pace to finish with 32. That would give him an average of 44.4 goals per season for his career. He’d have to maintain that rate for 11 more seasons to get to 888 goals and begin a 12th season to reach 896 and 900 for his career.
Draisaitl missed Edmonton’s past two games with a lower-body injury and it’s unknown if he’ll add to his total this season. If he finishes the season with 52, he’d have a career average of 36.3 goals per season and need to play 14 more seasons at that pace to get to 896 and 900. If you go by Draisaitl’s average of 46.3 goals over his past seven seasons, he’d still need to play 11 more seasons to get to 896 and 900.
“Gretzky said records are made to be broken, but you’ve got to play 20-plus years at the top and be so consistent every year,” said Hockey Hall of Fame forward Teemu Selanne, who is 12th in NHL history with 684 goals. “Maybe, but I can’t see that (happening). Guys like Ovechkin with that scoring ability they don’t come along every day.”
The same used to be said of Gretzky, though, and Ovechkin ended his reign as the NHL’s top goal-scorer Sunday.
“I was wrong about Gretzky, so I might be wrong if I say nobody’s going to get it,” Brodeur said. “But it’s definitely going to be a challenge.”
