Atlantic Division winner debated by NHL.com panel

The Atlantic Division was rugged last season, producing five of the eight Eastern Conference qualifiers for the Stanley Cup Playoffs and two of the three Eastern Conference teams to record more than 100 points in the standings.

The Toronto Maple Leafs ended up winning the division with 108 points, six more than the second-place Tampa Bay Lightning. But it was the third-place Florida Panthers (98 points) who had the last laugh, upsetting each team on the way to repeating as Stanley Cup champions.

Those three perennial qualifiers were joined by two newcomers. The Ottawa Senators finished fourth with 97 points, making the postseason for the first time since 2017. The Montreal Canadiens, who had 91 points, ended a three-year drought since their surprising run to the 2021 Stanley Cup Final.

Will there be new teams to join the division title race this season or will it be the same three teams from last season? Can the Panthers, who are going for a coveted three-peat, survive the potentially season-ending knee injury to captain Aleksander Barkov and the absence of forward Matthew Tkachuk, who will be out at least three months after surgery during the offseason? Can the Buffalo Sabres or Detroit Red Wings follow the path of the Senators and end long playoff droughts? Can the Boston Bruins return to glory after a one-year absence?

We asked nine staff writers for their thoughts on who will win the Atlantic Division.

Montreal Canadiens

It’s not going to be easy, but I’m high on the Canadiens for the 2025-26 season. Not only do I think that they’ll win the division -- now that the Barkov and Tkachuk injuries have opened the door for new blood -- but I think Martin St. Louis will walk away with the Jack Adams Award as the NHL’s top coach and forward Ivan Demidov will win the Calder Trophy as the NHL’s top rookie. Much like the Senators, the Canadiens got a taste of the Stanley Cup Playoffs last spring, the first for many of their young players, and I think it will propel them to the top of the division. They’re young, they’re hungry and they have an up-and-coming, talented goalie backstopping them in Sam Montembeault, plus the addition of Noah Dobson to the reigning Calder winner Lane Hutson on defense. It’s a brutal division, with any number of teams that could end up No. 1, but I think the Canadiens rise to the top. -- Amalie Benjamin, senior writer

Montreal took a big step forward by qualifying for the Stanley Cup Playoffs last season, ending a three-year drought, and I believe will continue its ascent by finishing first in the Atlantic Division this season. The Canadiens have an abundance of offensive talent led by captain Nick Suzuki, forwards Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky, Patrik Laine, Brendan Gallagher and Josh Anderson. Demidov, 19, is an exciting young talent, who is expected to be in the Calder Trophy conversation this season for rookie of the year. The Canadiens shored up their defense with the acquisition of Dobson from the New York Islanders. Dobson will help take the Montreal blue line, already featuring Hutson, to a new level. Montembeault is one of the best goalies in Canada and expected to contend for a spot on the Olympic team. If St. Louis can pull it all together, then the Canadiens could well be the best team in the Atlantic. -- Derek Van Diest, staff writer

Ottawa Senators

Something happened last season that could spell trouble for the rest of the Atlantic Division going forward -- Brady Tkachuk and the Senators got a taste of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Not only did they get in, they nearly defeated the division champion Maple Leafs in the first round, losing in a tight, six-game series. Now, with captain Brady leading the way, this confident group is going to take the next step this season and win the division. With the Panthers missing their top two players for big stretches this season and the Maple Leafs looking to replace Mitch Marner’s production, the division could come down the Senators, Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning. I like the Senators to come out on top. -- Bill Price, Editor-in-Chief

Tampa Bay Lightning

The Lightning have remained steady while the division contenders around them have lost, either through trade (Maple Leafs, Marner) or injury (Panthers). Meanwhile, the Lightning arguably still have the best goalie in the division (Andrei Vasilevskiy), the best defenseman (Victor Hedman) and one of the top first lines in the game in Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. Missing Nick Paul until November hurts their depth, but winning is so baked into their culture that it just feels like someone will step into that hole and prosper. The Lightning last won a division title in 2018-19, but it feels like this is the season they get back into the top spot in the Atlantic. -- Adam Kimelman, deputy managing editor

The Lightning were my pick before learning of Barkov's season-ending knee injury. Bill Price, our editor-in-chief, has the proof in his email inbox. I sent my season predictions on Wednesday. Barkov sustained his injury Thursday. I like Tampa Bay's depth and prove-it mentality. It might have the best combined ability to score and defend in the League. If not for injuries last season, things might have ended differently. The Lightning were compromised in the Stanley Cup Playoffs with defenseman Hedman, and forwards Oliver Bjorkstrand, Yanni Gourde and Anthony Cirelli all injured, and Brandon Hagel dealing with an injury and a suspension. The fact is that they had four of the 12 combined first- and second-team NHL All-Stars, including Kucherov, who won the Art Ross Trophy. All are back. They're loaded and hungry to prove they're still a Stanley Cup contender after three straight first-round exits, the past two to the Panthers. It starts in the regular season. -- Dan Rosen, senior writer

There is one caveat here. If future Hall of Fame goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy is not healthy enough to play at least half the games as the Lightning’s No. 1 goalie this season, all bets are off. He’s been out with an undisclosed injury, but coach Jon Cooper says he’ll be ready for the start of the season. If so, there’s a lot to like about the Lightning. Toronto said goodbye to Marner (102 points), who is now a Vegas Golden Knight. The Lightning, meanwhile, bring back Vasilevskiy, another future Hall of Famer in Hedman, and four players in Kucherov (121), Hagel (90), Point (82) and Guentzel (80) who reached the 80-point barrier last season. What’s not to like? -- Mike Zeisberger, staff writer

Toronto Maple Leafs

I was leaning toward picking the Maple Leafs to finish first in the Atlantic for the second straight season even before the Panthers lost Barkov to injury last week. There have been questions about Vasilevskiy’s health during Lightning training camp. But it was also because I believe Toronto built a strong foundation under coach Craig Berube last season. That included a commitment to team defense that helped the Maple Leafs improve from allowing 3.18 goals per game in 2023-24 to 2.79 per game last season. Of course, replacing Marner, who joined the Golden Knights in a sign-and-trade agreement, will not be easy. Toronto has the depth to handle it, though, whether it’s Matias Maccelli, who takes Marner’s spot on the top line, or someone else. -- Tom Gulitti, senior writer

Yep, I’m picking the Maple Leafs to repeat as Atlantic Division champions. Yes, I know Marner is no longer there. The Maple Leafs still have plenty of scoring with Auston Matthews, William Nylander, John Tavares and Matthew Knies. Anthony Stolarz, who signed a four-year contract on Sunday, will likely take the bulk of the goaltending work for however long Joseph Woll is on a leave of absence attending to a personal family matter. He’ll handle that just fine. The Atlantic is once again going to be a tough division to win but I think the Maple Leafs still have what it takes to claim it again. -- Tracey Myers, staff writer

Sure, the Maple Leafs will need to overcome the loss of Marner, but let's not forget they still return five players who scored 20 or more goals last season. Macelli, a great playmaker, could end up taking Marner's spot on the top line with Matthews and Knies, and that's certainly a capable trio. There's offensive depth and don't discount the possible impact of rookie forward Easton Cowan if given the chance. The defense improved under the watch of Berube, who stabilized the unit when it finished eighth in goals-against last season. Stolarz has proven himself and Woll is a capable backup. Toronto took the Panthers to the limit in a seven-game loss in the Eastern Conference Second Round last season, so it wasn’t far off. -- Mike G. Morreale, senior draft writer