Zizing 'Em Up: Escalating salary cap could reshape playoff races

NHL.com staff writer Mike Zeisberger has been covering the NHL regularly since 1999. Each Monday he will use his extensive network of hockey contacts for his weekly notes column, "Zizing 'Em Up."

TORONTO -- Doug Armstrong said he's never seen more parity in the NHL than what exists right now.

The proof lies in the standings, where teams continue to bob and weave up and down on a nightly basis upon entering the final four weeks of the regular season. Other than the Winnipeg Jets (Central) and Washington Capitals (Metropolitan), who have leads of 11 and 10 points, respectively, atop their respective divisions, the races for Stanley Cup Playoff seedings and, in some cases, spots, are as fluid as they've ever been.

Could that landscape change in the near future, in conjunction with the escalating salary cap? Will the distinction between the haves and have nots start to become more tangible?

In Armstrong's opinion, that's exactly the way the League could be trending in the next few years.

"Teams are as close as I've ever seen," Armstrong, general manager of the St. Louis Blues, said in a phone interview. "And one of the things you are seeing is, especially in the East, you have Ottawa, you have Detroit, you have (New) Jersey, you have teams that are coming out of rebuilds and retools, that are in it. There are so many teams …

"I think that might change as the cap continues to grow."

In what way, specifically?

"I think when the cap was stagnant, it brought everybody closer," Armstrong said. "Now the cap is going up. The upper-echelon revenue teams are going to be able to flex their muscle and that's going to make a massive difference."

Just another intriguing sidebar when Armstrong and his colleagues congregate for their annual GM meetings in Palm Beach, Florida, starting Monday.

On Jan. 31, the NHL and the NHL Players' Association announced an agreement that will provide increased predictability on core salary cap economics for a minimum of the next three years (through 2027-28). The agreement sets the following annual increases to the upper limit, subject to the Collective Bargaining Agreement being in effect beyond the 2025-26 season: $7.5 million in 2025-26; $8.5 million in 2026-27 and $9.5 million in 2027-28.

The NHL and NHLPA also announced that team payroll ranges for the next three seasons would be an upper limit of $95.5 million and a lower limit of $70.6 million next season, an upper limit of $104 million and a lower limit of $76.9 million in 2026-27 and an upper limit of $113.5 million and a lower limit of $83.9 million in 2027-28.

Projected team payroll ranges for 2026-27 and 2027-28 will be subject to potential minor adjustments (up or down).

The NHL Trade Deadline on March 7 was reflective of how the escalating cap had teams willing to give up high draft capital to bring in players knowing there will be more future financial flexibility to attract free agents or players with existing contracts who are looking for raises. Of the 26 trades made that day, five first-round NHL Draft picks (four conditional) and seven second-round picks (one conditional) were moved as part of the flurry of activity.

The Blues were one of nine out of the 32 teams not to make a deal despite multiple reports suggesting captain Brayden Schenn and goalie Jordan Binnington might be available.

"I've learned over the years to block out the white noise," Armstrong said. "You can't let that affect how you are doing your job.

"The simple fact is, we have a plan that we were sticking to. We're not, quite honestly, at the spot where one player was going to change our outcome. And, on the other side, our team was playing well, so you wanted to give them a chance while not jeopardizing anything we're trying to build."

The Blues have a chance at the playoffs. A good one. They are currently tied in points (73) with the Vancouver Canucks, who have played one fewer game, for the second wild card from the Western Conference. They're among those teams exemplifying the parity Armstrong was talking about. It will be interesting to see if the increasing cap creates the separation he's predicting for the future.

EYES ON ITALY

With the excitement of the 4 Nations Face-Off in the rearview mirror, countries have already turned their sights toward the 2026 Milano Cortina Olympics.

Armstrong was the GM of 4 Nations champion Canada and will have the same role at the Winter Games next February.

"We'll have a gathering in August," he said. "We'll bring a select number of players in, basically because you have to start the process of vetting them.

"There's a lot of paperwork that goes into it. You just don't get on a plane and play in the Olympics. And so, we'll start that process and have that meeting in August."

Before then, Armstrong said Canada management is drawing up a scouting schedule for the end of the playoffs and the 2025 IIHF World Championship in Stockholm, Sweden, and Herning, Denmark, from May 9-25.

"We want to be prepared for the August meeting and hit the ground running so we can pick the best players," he said. "And we'll debrief on the knowledge that we got from the 4 Nations."

One major point gleaned from that tournament: Canada's goaltending is no longer considered an Achilles' heel thanks to Binnington's heroics. The Blues goalie has established himself as the clubhouse leader for Canada's starting job going into the Olympics, especially with six of his 31 saves coming in overtime that led to Connor McDavid's 4 Nations-clinching goal in a 3-2 victory against the United States.

Armstrong has seen such heroics from Binnington before. In 2019, he watched the Richmond Hill, Ontario, native help the Blues to a 4-1 victory against the Boston Bruins in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final at TD Garden, the same venue where he hoisted the 4 Nations Trophy.

"I consider him a friend, I guess, because we work so well together," Armstrong said. "Out of everyone at that event, I was happiest for him because I understand what he's been through.

"He's from Toronto. He goes back there every summer. I mean, the question was there about if Canada had the proper goalie to win the event? And at the end of the day, we did. And now he can go home in the summer and doesn't have to face that question because he already answered it.

"His life just got easier because of that event. He just had a baby too. And he can enjoy his time and get the kudos that he deserves."

There will be plenty of debates and questions among management and fans about what Canada's Olympic roster might look like. This much is certain: Binnington, health permitting, will be among those players selected for the August meeting.

ZITO'S WORLD

Florida Panthers coach Paul Maurice is not surprised at how GM Bill Zito manages to swing big deals, whether it's for forwards Matthew Tkachuk and Brad Marchand, or defenseman Seth Jones.

He's had a firsthand seat to the proceedings.

"Go back to the summer (2022) I got hired," Maurice recounted last week. "That was a team that had something like 122 points the previous season, but an unusual style, and they needed a different style of player.

"I was interviewing someone when Bill called. I had only been there a couple of weeks, and he said, 'I think I can get Matthew Tkachuk but it's going to be a heavy price.' I got off the phone and said to someone, 'He's not getting Matthew Tkachuk.'"

Oh, ye of little faith. In the end, Zito got his man, landing Tkachuk from the Calgary Flames for forward Jonathan Huberdeau and defenseman MacKenzie Weegar on July 22, 2022, exactly one month after Maurice was hired.

"Now I stop second guessing him," Maurice said.

With good reason.

Since the Tkachuk trade, the Panthers made the 2023 Stanley Cup Final, losing in five games to the Vegas Golden Knights, and won their first NHL championship the following season with a seven-game victory against the Edmonton Oilers.

Florida is first in the Atlantic Division this season with 14 games remaining. Zito solidified his image as a home-run hitter by landing Jones, the No. 4 pick by the Nashville Predators in the 2013 NHL Draft, and Marchand, the former Bruins captain, before the Deadline.

Ask Zito about it and he rejects his so-called reputation as someone who always swings for the fences.

"I hate to burst your or anyone else's bubble, but I don't look at it as being a home-run hitter," he said with a chuckle. "Instead, we have a process where we identify all the players constantly. And if you have the ability to acquire a player that fits and who we think first and foremost can help our team, and the benefits outweighs the cost, who wouldn't pursue those guys?

"When you peel back the layers of the onion, you'll find that that statement is empty. It's a bit silly. It just kind of happens. Again, who wouldn't pursue them?"

Maybe. But the difference is, of all the GMs who do, Zito is the one who often seems to pull those trades off.

He laughed at that notion.

"There's a lot that I don't pull off," he said lightheartedly. "You just don't know about them."

One of the successful ones landed Marchand, who remains week to week with an upper-body injury.

Asked what he's learned about the veteran forward that he didn't know before, Zito talked about his smarts.

"His emotional intelligence," Zito said. "He gets it. He's a very, very bright guy. You knew he was a bright hockey player but he's also a bright teammate. He's well-spoken, and he gets what's going on in short order. Very impressed with how smart he is."

Maurice feels the same way about Zito.

QUOTE/UNQUOTE

"It was tough not making the playoffs my first four years, so to be in a spot here where we have a chance to do it, it's what you want. You want to be in the playoffs. Everyone wants to chase down a Stanley Cup. You can't look too far ahead. There's still work to do, but it's good hockey."

-- Ottawa Senators forward Dylan Cozens, who is hoping to play in the NHL postseason for the first time after being acquired from the Buffalo Sabres on March 7

THE LAST WORD

The game lost a true pillar of the sport with the passing of Jamie Bramburger last week.

Bramburger might not be the most familiar name in the hockey word at the NHL level, but for those in the Ottawa, and particularly the community of Pembroke, 60 miles northwest of the Canadian capital, he embodied what hockey is all about.

Just ask New Jersey Devils coach Sheldon Keefe.

In July of 2003, Keefe, then 23-years-old, bought the Pembroke Lumber Kings for $175,000. The Lumber Kings are one of 12 teams in the Central Canada Hockey League, a Junior A level circuit in Eastern Ontario where players range from ages 16-20. Senators forward Claude Giroux (Cumberland) and retired NHL forward Patrick Sharp (Kanata Valley), who played for the Philadelphia Flyers, Chicago Blackhawks and Dallas Stars from 2002-18, are alumni of that league.

Keefe went on to become coach and GM of the Lumber Kings, winning five consecutive titles until he left to coach Soo of the Ontario Hockey League in 2012. One of his biggest supporters was Bramburger, a community leader and Lumber Kings play-by-play announcer who wrote the book "Go Kings Go! A Century of Pembroke Lumber Kings Hockey."

During a visit to Pembroke in 2020 to document the rise of Keefe's career to NHL coach, Bramburger and several of Keefe's other friends and former colleagues invited me out to a local restaurant to watch Keefe's Toronto Maple Leafs play the New York Rangers At that time, Bramburger recounted just how much Pembroke had changed Keefe's life.

"Sheldon knew he had to change the perceptions of who he was," Bramburger said. "He grew up here. He became a man here.

"I think he knew if he doesn't come to Pembroke, if he doesn't buy the Lumber Kings, if he doesn't make the decision not only to buy the team but also to become the coach and run the day-to-day operations, he's not in Toronto now."

More than a decade and two NHL coaching jobs later, Keefe has never forgotten Bramburger and his Pembroke friends who helped forge the career and life he has now. As such, he was crushed at learning the news of Bramburger's passing.

"Through his words and actions Jamie's leadership inspired and connected people," Keefe said. "He taught me the value of community and charity and his passion for Lumber Kings hockey was unmatched.

"For that I am eternally grateful. He will be deeply missed. I'm shocked and saddened by his loss but will remember him fondly for the positive impact he had on the lives of so many including myself."

Keefe isn't alone in his sentiments. "Hockey Night in Canada" paid tribute to Bramburger during their broadcast of Senators-Maple Leafs on Saturday.

Jamie Bramburger was only 58.

Rest in peace.