NHL EDGE stats: Carlson trade boosts Ducks’ Pacific Division title chances

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we break down John Carlson’s outlook after being traded to the Anaheim Ducks.

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The Anaheim Ducks acquired puck-moving defenseman John Carlson from the Washington Capitals on March 6, boosting their chances of winning the Pacific Division and also their power-play outlook.

The 36-year-old, who won the Stanley Cup with the Capitals in 2018 and can become an unrestricted free agent after this season, made his Ducks debut in their 4-3 road win against the Montreal Canadiens on Sunday. Carlson, who hadn't played since Feb. 5 because of a lower-body injury, had one shot on goal, played 22:59 on mostly the second pair with Olen Zellweger and also saw 1:18 of power-play time in his first game with Anaheim.

Since entering the NHL in 2009-10, Carlson ranked among the defenseman leaders in points (771; fourth), assists (605; third), shots on goal (2,635; fifth), goals (166; sixth) and power-play points (273; sixth) as the longtime teammate of the NHL's all-time leading goal-scorer Alex Ovechkin (921) prior to the trade. Carlson has a chance to play on the first power-play unit for Anaheim, which would bring exposure to three of the NHL’s elite young forwards in Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier and rookie Beckett Sennecke. Carlson was tied for Washington's lead in primary assists (19) and tied for the eighth most among NHL defensemen in that category this season prior to the trade.

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The Ducks have been one of the NHL’s biggest turnaround teams this season under new coach Joel Quenneville and ranked 13th in goals per game (3.25) at the time of the trade, but their power play (18.2 percent; 23rd out of 32 teams) has room for improvement. Carlson, who had become Washington’s No. 2 option on the blue line behind Jakob Chychrun, was tied with Chychrun for ninth among NHL defensemen in points (97 in 134 games) and ranked eighth in assists (82) over the past two seasons combined prior to the trade.

Anaheim, which is in a neck-and-neck race with the Vegas Golden Knights for the Pacific Division title, already has more wins (37) than last season (35) with 15 games left. The Ducks have the third-longest playoff drought (seven seasons; most-recent appearance: 2017-18) in the NHL behind the Buffalo Sabres (14) and Detroit Red Wings (nine), and all three of those teams were in position to qualify for the postseason at the three-quarter mark of the season (March 6).

Here are three advanced stats storylines surrounding Carlson that could help the Ducks win the Pacific Division and/or make a deep playoff run.

1. Shots by location

Carlson covers all three major shot locations at a high level; he ranked third among defensemen in high-danger shots on goal (15) this season prior to the trade, showing he is still a driver of zone entries and scoring chances in different situations and regardless of linemates.

He also ranked highly at his position in perimeter shot location categories prior to the trade; he was in the 90th percentile in midrange goals (four), 87th percentile in midrange shots on goal (23), 86th percentile in long-range goals (three) and 85th percentile in long-range shots on goal (48).

Carlson is a three-time 70-point defenseman who had his best season in 2019-20 (75 points in 69 games) and also has had six seasons of at least 20 power-play points (career-high 33 in 2018-19). But this season, Washington’s power play struggled (16.4 percent; fifth worst in NHL) prior to the trade; Carlson had nine power-play assists playing mostly on the second unit but had no power-play goals.

2. Skating ability

Even as a veteran, Carlson brought plenty of speed and playmaking ability to the Capitals and now could help the Ducks reach another offensive gear. He ranked in the 86th percentile among defensemen in max skating speed (22.52 mph; 86th percentile) and 88th percentile at the position in power-play skating distance (19.29 miles).

Carlson ranks fifth among active defensemen in primary assists (311) and joins a defense corps with fellow veteran Jacob Trouba and up-and-coming players like Jackson LaCombe, Olen Zellweger and Pavel Mintyukov. One of the biggest tasks for Carlsson will be to help the Ducks improve their defensive play; despite being in a division title race, they are allowing 3.50 goals per game, the second most behind the Vancouver Canucks (3.71). Prior to the trade, Carlson was one of nine NHL players with at least 45 points (46) and 80 blocks (84) this season.

Per NHL EDGE IQ, the Ducks already had the most shot attempts off the rush per game (19.1) in the League prior to the Carlson trade. NHL EDGE IQ defines shots off the rush as inferenced shots (excluding attempts taken greater than 60 feet, beyond the goal line or against empty net) that occur within five seconds of the puck crossing the offensive blue line.

3. Shot speed, possession metrics

Carlson ranked in the 92nd percentile among defensemen in hardest shot (97.53 mph) this season prior to the trade and has 23 shot attempts between 90-100 mph, which ranks in the 97th percentile at the position.

In terms of 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage, Anaheim (51.5; eighth) ranked slightly ahead of Vegas (51.2; tied for ninth) prior to the trade. Carlson was one of the Capitals’ best possession players through the years and even into the later stages of his career; he ranked third on Washington in shot attempts for at 5-on-5 (972) and fifth on the team in shot attempts differential (plus-99) this season prior to the trade.

Like veteran forward and longtime power-play difference-maker Chris Kreider (acquired from New York Rangers in offseason), who has bounced back to score 21 goals (seven on power play) this season, Carlson has rejuvenated offensive upside upon joining the Ducks’ young core. And, after the Golden Knights and Edmonton Oilers were the clear front-runners entering the season, the Ducks’ big splash at the NHL Trade Deadline could be enough to tilt the Pacific Division title race in their favor

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