State Your Case: Panthers or Oilers to get game together, go on deep run 

Neither the Florida Panthers nor the Edmonton Oilers are where they want to be heading into their Stanley Cup Final rematch on Saturday at Amerant Bank Arena (7 p.m. ET; SCRIPPS, NHLN, SNW, CITY, SN360).

Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov is out for the season after undergoing knee surgery during the preseason. Forward Matthew Tkachuk, the emotional heartbeat of the team, hasn’t played since this season undergoing offseason surgery. He’s not expected back until sometime in January.

Not surprisingly, the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions are 11-8-1 and find themselves in fifth place in the Atlantic Division.

The Oilers are 9-9-5, sixth in the Pacific Division, and like the Panthers, enter Saturday outside the playoff picture.

They also had a significant injury, with forward Zach Hyman missing the first 19 games of the season because of a wrist injury he sustained during last season’s Western Conference Final. He returned last Saturday and has two assists in four games.

They also have had issues defensively, allowing 3.57 goals per game, which is fifth worst in the NHL. They also have a minus-16 goal differential.

To say each team is seeking its identity and hoping to get back to its game from the previous two seasons would be a colossal understatement.

So, when the teams who met in the Stanley Cup Final the past two seasons face off for the first team this season, it’s not odd to wonder which is more likely to find its way and be in position to forge another deep run. That is the question before senior writer Dan Rosen and senior director of editorial Shawn P. Roarke, the co-hosts of the “NHL @TheRink” podcasts, in the latest installment of State Your Case.

Rosen: For the purposes of this debate we can start with the very basic fact that Florida is a better team this season based simply on record and, by extension, points percentage. The Panthers are 11-8-1 in 20 games for a .575 points percentage. The Oilers are 9-9-5 in 23 games for a .500 points percentage. I could stop right there and win the argument, but we all know that I won't stop there. We also know that record/points percentage is not a true measure of a team one-quarter of the way through the season. However, a team's defensive game is a good measure, especially when it’s dealing with mega injuries like the Panthers are with Barkov, Tkachuk, Dmitry Kulikov, Tomas Nosek, Jonah Gadjovich and now Eetu Luostarinen. The Panthers are a better defensive team by just about every metric. And there's the most basic, which is goals against per game. Florida is allowing 2.90 while Edmonton is averaging 3.57. The Panthers are allowing slightly fewer shots on goal per game (25.1 to the Oilers' 26). At 5-on-5 the Panthers are allowing 1.75 goals per game and the Oilers 2.56. Edmonton has allowed a League-most 59 goals at 5-on-5. The Panthers' team save percentage isn't great by any means, just .884, which is 23rd in the League. The Oilers' team save percentage is a League-worst .863. I'm sure Shawn will come up with something to spark my next list of reasons why Florida is a better team, so let's hear it.

Roarke: Look, things don’t look great for the Oilers right now. Are there concerns? Yes, there is a laundry list of them. But fortunately, the playoffs don't start next week. There is three-quarters of the season left to play and time for the Oilers to find their game, like they have in the past. Let's travel back in time to this very day last season. The Oilers were 10-9-2 (.524 points percentage), a minus-9 goal differential and they sat in eighth place in the West. They didn't resemble in any way the team that made it to Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final. The Oilers had yet to show their true self then and they have yet to show their true self now. And let's talk about records and points percentage and the fallacy that they can be. The Panthers, the team you believe to be superior, reached their first Cup Final in this mini-dynasty run in 2023. They were 42-32-8 and had 98 points. Sixteen teams in the NHL had a better record than them, including the Calgary Flames, who did not make the playoffs, and the Nashville Predators had the same 92 points as the Panthers. Records matter not at all now. Get into the dance and show your true colors, just like the Oilers have done each of the past two seasons.

Rosen: The Oilers won't get into the dance at the rate they're going. The Panthers, provided they keep defending and start getting some players back, namely Tkachuk, will find their way in. I agree with you that records and points percentage at this stage of the season don't matter as much as how a team is playing and the process it is undertaking to get to its game on a consistent basis. The Oilers' process seems all over the place. I can't figure it out. The Panthers' process seems to be built on sustainability through a stretch when their depth is being tested. I believe in the Panthers’ ability to sustain a strong enough execution of their game plan to stay in the mix long enough to find their stride when it matters most. The NHL EDGE stats tell a story, too. The Panthers have generated more high-danger shots on goal (176) in three fewer games than the Oilers (166). The Panthers are spending more time in the offensive zone (42.8 percent) than Edmonton (41.2 percent) and less time in the defensive zone (39.7 percent to 41.3 percent). Marginal differences, yes, but it shows one team is better than the other. It shows it’s more consistent at getting to the hard areas on the ice in the offensive zone. Other than the big two in Edmonton, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, what about the Oilers as they are currently situated gives you hope that they can turn things around? It's not their ability to defend. It's not goaltending. It's not depth scoring. It is history, but that's not enough to say they're in a better spot or a better team than the Panthers.

Roarke: That’s rich, Dan. Your initial argument is points and point percentage and now you move the net. Suddenly, records and points percentage don’t matter as much at this point of the season. Hmmmm. There goes argument No. 1. Now, for No. 2. Do the Florida Panthers have better advanced metrics and structure than the Oilers? Yes. That is a given. The Panthers are built on structure. You know what they are going to do in every area of the ice. It’s what makes them a great team and, yes, they are great. Edmonton goes about it in different ways, but they are also a great team. They are more free flowing than the Panthers. I’ll admit the Oilers haven’t found their stride yet. They are too loose defensively, and they are too porous in goal. Even offensively, they are not generating the odd-man chances they have in the past. But this team has shown during the past two regular seasons, and particularly during the playoffs last season, that it can flip the switch as needed. That’s the luxury of having McDavid and Draisaitl on your side. They are game-breakers and can hide a host of sins about their team. They have Hyman back in the fold and that will help. It says here that the Oilers will get their stuff together by the break in February for the Olympic Winter Games Milano Cortina 2026 and be a force at the back end of the season. And, for right now, they will have their best two players – McDavid and Draisaitl -- firing on all cylinders. For Florida, Tkachuk is out until likely the New Year and Barkov isn’t coming back, which derails their ability to match up with high-powered teams, like Edmonton, down the stretch and into the playoffs. Advantage Oilers.