Mailbag: Maple Leafs still trying to find way without Marner; next Makar contract

NHL.com's weekly Over the Boards mailbag is in full swing this season. Every week, senior writer Dan Rosen sifts through your questions sent to him on X and chooses five to answer.

To participate in future mailbags, send your questions to @drosennhl on X and use #OvertheBoards.

Do you genuinely think the Toronto Maple Leafs would have been better off overpaying to keep Mitch Marner, or are they going to be better off despite their struggles? -- @CharlieMcAfeeHP

The Maple Leafs didn't have much of a choice. By all accounts, Marner was looking to play elsewhere after last season. "Overpaying" him, to use your word, likely wasn't going to get it done; he was looking for a fresh start somewhere else. He got that in a sign-and-trade with the Vegas Golden Knights, landing an eight-year, $96 million contract. Toronto can still be dangerous without him, but there's no doubt it’s different.

In fact, the Maple Leafs’ come-from-behind 4-3 win against the Pittsburgh Penguins on Monday was a strong statement about what they're capable of. Trailing 3-0 going into the third period, they scored four goals in 10:12 from 3:31 to 13:43. They can score in bunches, which they also did with Marner. They obviously can do it without him too. Toronto can also play a hard game -- it can grind, roll lines and forecheck and take away time and space.

If you sensed the but coming, here are four showcasing how the Maple Leafs miss Marner, and why it's hard to think they'll be better off without him:

Auston Matthews hasn't been as consistently dangerous; he entered Wednesday with 11 points (seven goals, four assists) in 13 games. He had one two-goal game and two two-point games, including a goal and an assist Monday. It makes you wonder if Matthews misses Marner's ability to set him up for Grade-A scoring chances.

The Maple Leafs have no one to replace Marner's ability to put up 100 points. This one is obvious. They're going to have to work around it all season.

The ability to score in bunches is not a reliable way to win consistently; that's where Marner's production mattered too. When you have Matthews, William Nylander, John Tavares and Marner as your top scoring threats, one or two of them can be having off games and you'll still feel good about your chances of winning. Take one away, and it adds pressure to the remaining three to get it done.

The power play is a big concern. The Maple Leafs are 4-for-33 this season. That's alarming, considering they had a 24.8 percent success rate last season (tied for eighth in NHL) and averaged 24.2 percent in Marner's nine seasons from 2016-25. He averaged 25 points with the man-advantage per season, including 32 per season from 2022-25. More alarming is the fact that in 13 games, Toronto has only had 33 power plays. It’s averaging 4:17 of ice time per game on the power play and 2.54 power-play opportunities per game, 28th and 29th in the League, respectively. That's a carryover from last season, when the Maple Leafs were 20th in power plays per game (2.66) and 25th in power play ice time per game (4:14). So, that's not a Marner in-or-out issue; it's a team-wide issue.

Your prediction for Cale Makar's next contract? -- @Avsman0

Eight years, $128 million. That's eight seasons for Makar's jersey, No. 8. It's an average annual value of $16 million per season. Eight is a factor of 16, for all the math wizards out there. It's $8 million less than Kirill Kaprizov is getting on his eight-year, $136 million contract with the Minnesota Wild.

Makar is eligible to re-sign on July 1, 2026. He can re-sign an eight-year contract through Sept. 15, 2026. The new Collective Bargaining Agreement begins Sept. 16, and that's when the maximum contract length for players re-signing with their current teams drops to seven years from eight. Makar can still squeeze an eight-year contract into the window between when he becomes eligible to re-sign and the new CBA begins.

Where are you on the Bruins? They have a lot of the core locked up, but at the same time feels like they really could use a reset. -- @punmasterrifkin

You nailed it. They are a cap team caught in between, trying to reset around the core but lacking enough scoring depth and speed to be consistent. Their structure has to be on point every game, their defensive efforts massive. It's a lot to ask.

The Bruins' core is locked up with forwards David Pastrnak, Elias Lindholm and Morgan Geekie, defensemen Charlie McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm and Nikita Zadorov, and goalie Jeremy Swayman all signed through at least the 2029-30 season. It's a strong core. Geekie, especially, is growing into one of the more underrated players in the League; he has nine goals in 15 games this season and 40 in 70 games since Dec. 4 of last season. That was one fewer than Pastrnak in the same number of games in the same span.

But it's not enough to expect the Bruins to be a playoff contender. Depth is a concern, as is speed. They don't have the puck enough. It can be hard to clearly identify their identity on a game-to-game basis. Their draft history is suspect too; of their 49 selections since the 2017 NHL Draft, only Swayman, forward John Beecher and defenseman Mason Lohrei are currently playing for the Bruins.

Marco Sturm was hired as coach, and Boston acquired forwards Viktor Arvidsson, Tanner Jeannot, Sean Kuraly and Michael Eyssimont for forward depth in the offseason. But the Bruins are now without Elias Lindholm (lower body, week to week), which is a huge loss. Marat Khusnutdinov, 23, is getting a chance to center the top line between Geekie and Pastrnak. Fraser Minten, 21, is the third-line center. When they play with structure, it helps them limit chances and win games, the way they did in a 2-1 victory against the Carolina Hurricanes on Saturday. But winning that way enough to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs will be difficult.

They're in the mushy middle.

Do you see the Florida Panthers making any moves to address the blue line? Any names you think could be seen as potential trade acquisitions for the team? -- @Matthewwherz6

First off, Dmitry Kulikov's absence because of surgery for an upper-body injury is a more significant blow to the Panthers' blue line than has been discussed. When healthy, Kulikov, who had surgery last month and is out an expected five months, plays an important role as a predictable and experienced defenseman who can go back for the puck and take a hit, keep possession and move it quickly up to the forwards for a clean breakout. There's a simple and straightforward approach to his physical game and he slots in perfectly on the left side behind Gustav Forsling and Niko Mikkola, who are distinctly different players.

So, yes, Florida is and will continue to be hunting for a replacement who has attributes similar to Kulikov's, provided no one else goes down with a long-term injury. But the Panthers are first going to see if they have one in Donovan Sebrango, who played his second game with them on Tuesday.

They claimed Sebrango off waivers from the Ottawa Senators on Oct. 16 because he's 6-foot-2 and 223 pounds. Kulikov is 6-1, 212. The thought process is Sebrango can fit because he plays a simple, straightforward and physical game like Kulikov. He can skate, which allows him to defend well. He can go back for a puck and with his head up find a forward with a breakout pass. He can absorb contact because of his size and dole out some punishment too. He might be the right player to fit into the hole Kulikov's injury has created. If he doesn't work, Florida will look for another player like him.

The Capitals were reportedly in on a couple of top six free agents in the offseason. Do you see them trying to move some of their younger players to bolster the top six if the offense/power play doesn't start producing? -- @Ben_Janacek

The Capitals likely won't chase points this season by trading away players they're trying to develop for their future unless they can get a top-six forward at a decent age with term on his contract. They're nearing the end of the Alex Ovechkin era, and defenseman John Carlson is, like Ovechkin, in the last year of his contract and can become an unrestricted free agent on July 1.

On the forward side, short of acquiring a player at a decent age who is signed for multiple seasons, expect Washington to instead look for more from Aliaksei Protas and Connor McMichael, who has only one goal and four points in 12 games after putting up 26 goals and 57 points in 82 games last season. It'll likely maintain patience, at least for now, with forward Hendrix Lapierre, who is 23 years old and a pending restricted free agent. They Capitals will bank on Ryan Leonard to continue his development into the type of fearless, physical and skilled forward no one wants to play against. They'll wait for Ilya Protas, Ivan Miroshnichenko and Andrew Cristall to develop enough to become NHL regulars. Tom Wilson, Dylan Strome and Pierre-Luc Dubois, who is currently out with a lower-body injury, will remain key parts of the core group in the top-six forward group.

Washington might move future assets such as draft picks to bolster the team this season, but with the possibility that this could be the last season with Ovechkin and Carlson, it's hard to see them trading some of their top prospects like Miroshnichenko, Cristal, Ilya Protas and defenseman Cole Hutson when they could be in Washington as soon as next season, unless, of course, it makes sense from a talent, age and contract situation.