NHL.com's weekly Over the Boards mailbag is in full swing this season. Every week, senior writer Dan Rosen sifts through your questions sent to him on X and chooses several to answer.
To participate in future mailbags, send your questions to @drosennhl on X and use #OvertheBoards.
Are the Penguins regressing to the mean, or is this going to be a vexing season for Kyle Dubas, where he has to thread the contend-now and build-for-the-future? -- @TopesWriter
It certainly looks like they're regressing to the mean, moving down closer to expectations but maybe in a slightly better position than the offseason prognostications had them.
The Penguins were red-hot in October, but the underlying numbers suggested that they weren't as good as their 8-2-2 record. They were tied for first in wins, points (18) and points percentage (.750), fourth in goals per game (3.67) and tied for third in goals against per game (2.42). But they were allowing 30.7 shots per game (tied for 27th). They were owning only 45.5 percent of the shot attempts at 5-on-5 (27th). They were shooting 10.2 percent at 5-on-5, which was top 10 but not a wildly outlandish percentage and could have been sustainable. The rest was not.
Flip it to November and the Penguins have been ice cold despite the numbers suggesting they're not as bad as their 2-4-3 record. They're not scoring, which is the biggest issue. Their 2.22 goals per game this month is last in the League, a steep drop from October. They're arguably defending better even though they're allowing 2.89 goals per game. They're owning 52.0 percent of the shot attempts share at 5-on-5 and they're allowing 25.3 shots on goal per game, down more than five shots per game than October. But their 5-on-5 production is way down; 11 goals in nine games and shooting 5.5 percent.
The Penguins offense is better than what they've shown this month but not as good as it was in October. If they can play to the average of the two months and stick to sound defending, they'll stay close to the playoff mix in the Eastern Conference, but it's likely not going to be enough for them to be too concerned about threading the needle between contending now and building for later. Questions about the futures of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang will likely re-emerge later this season. It's still hard for me to believe the Penguins will trade them unless they ask to be traded. It's hard for me to believe Malkin won't re-sign unless he wants to leave.
Dubas' job, as it was in the offseason, is to thread the needle through the big three.
Where do the Blues go from here? Doug Armstrong said the retool was over, but that doesn't appear so. Do they possibly trade a big name? -- @ShmuelCohen007
This is a tough one because the St. Louis Blues are underperforming as a team and individually across the board this season from what was expected of them. It lends credibility to the thought that their strong finish to last season, their 19-4-3 record after the 4 Nations Face-Off, was more flash than substance. Their execution looks off. Everything looks like it's hard for them to do. Nothing is seamless. It's the opposite of how the Blues looked when they were going through the post-4 Nations run to get to the Stanley Cup Playoffs last season.
Because the Blues went on that run and returned this season almost intact, there is the underlying belief that they can do it again, that they can rediscover that level of seamless execution that led to them scoring 3.81 goals per game in the 26 games following the 4 Nations. They thought they were approaching that level of game with points in three straight games, albeit with two overtime losses, before losing 3-2 to the New York Rangers on Monday. Following that loss, Blues coach Jim Montgomery said he "didn't think we played with the requisite of intensity and connectedness and puck support that we've been playing with the three previous games." But add it up and the Blues have not scored more than two goals in five straight games. Their offense is sputtering and with that their confidence.
The next 15 games will be telling. It'll take the Blues to the holiday break. Either the offense shows signs of consistent life, or look for more re-tooling attempts. Blues forward and captain Brayden Schenn ($6.5 million AAV) is signed through the 2027-28 season. He's 34 years old. Defenseman Justin Faulk ($6.5 million AAV) is signed through next season. He's 33. Short of a turnaround, you'll likely start hearing more and more about those two players being on the trading block. Don't rule out 27-year-old forward Jordan Kyrou ($8.125 million AAV through 2030-31) as being available too. It's not that time yet, though. It's still too early, especially for a team that has shown an ability to get hot and climb the standings quickly.
