Oettinger vs. Skinner goalie matchup in Western Conference Final

Goaltending is an integral part of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. To better understand the strengths and weaknesses of each goaltender, the last 100 goals allowed for each goaltender in the regular season and every goal in the playoffs were charted to see what patterns emerge.

The Western Conference Final between the Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers features two young goalies who have risen quickly into No. 1 roles in the NHL in part by showing the mental strength to bounce back from adversity at various points this season.

Jake Oettinger went 35-14-4 despite an NHL career-worst .905 save percentage in the regular season for Dallas but finished strong and is back above an impressive .913 career average with a .918 save percentage through the first two rounds of the playoffs. At the other end is Stuart Skinner, who overcame a rough start in his second season as a starter to finish strong, posted a .910 save percentage while eliminating the Los Angeles Kings in the first round, then had to bounce back after getting pulled for two games in the second round, finishing with three goals on 32 shots to eliminate the Vancouver Canucks in Game 7.

Each goalie has unique strengths and relative weaknesses, and the ability to target those could help determine a winner in this best-of-7 series.

Jake Oettinger

Dallas Stars

Oettinger was great late in the regular season, going 10-2-0 with a .930 save percentage after March 14, and in the process appeared to shed some of the habits and trends that contributed to an until-then disappointing regular season. After a .925 save percentage in the first round against the Vegas Golden Knights, Oettinger finished the second round against the Colorado Avalanche at .911, and some of the scoring trends so far in the playoffs might suit the skillset of the Oilers top players and power play.

Traffic and scrambles: Screens are always a big part of playoff scoring and while Oettinger has typically excelled managing traffic, some of the broken-play scrambles on pucks that don’t get through to him left him stranded atop the crease against Colorado and played a role in 6-of-15 goals. That brings the playoff total to 10-of-29 (34.5 percent) after 23 percent of the tracked regular-season goals, all well above the 14 percent average.

Watch for overlap on sharp angles: Oettinger gave up 21 goals on low-to-high passes in the regular season, above the 17.1 percent tracked average of the now more than 7,000 goals tracked for this project since 2017, and another nine on sharp-angle plays originating from below the face-off circle. There was inconsistency on his post-to-post transitions and footwork on plays that moved through the middle of the ice from sharp angles and behind the net, and it contributed to those totals by delaying his ability to get out and set on pop passes out front and in-tight lateral plays. He often uses a technique called “overlap” in his post play, keeping his short-side skate outside the post as plays move towards the goal line, flattening out his backside pad along the goal line to prepare for a potential push across, especially when there is a rush element. The overlap can create delays getting across on wraparounds and pass outs after carrying the puck behind the net, which created a couple close calls against Colorado, and can also create short-side high exposure if he doesn’t stay patient with his hands, something Mikko Raantanen took advantage of from a sharp angle to score in Game 6.

Glove side: Seeing the biggest regular-season number over the glove might make it tempting to target, but the reality is these numbers don't represent save percentages, and the 25 high-glove total is only slightly above the 23.6 percent tracked average. The fact that seven of the high-glove goals came on clean looks and another four in 1-on-1 situations in the regular season, however, make it a trend worth watching, especially after Colorado scored 6-of-15 goals over Oettinger’s glove, including a couple of open looks. Overall, the Avalanche scored 12-of-15 goals on the glove side, which may be a coincidence after Vegas scored 9-of-14 on the other side, especially when you consider several came on rebounds and scrambles, but the glove side on open looks could become a trend, and his high, fingers-up glove position means shots just over the pad have also been a popular target.

Five-hole?: The 12 tracked regular-season goals scored between the pads are also right around average, and there have only been two in the playoffs, but there was a trend in some of the open-look goals between the legs worth watching, even if it appears to be one of the things corrected in the late-season surge. Oettinger sometimes retreats before the shot with a double reverse c-cut that widens out his stance and puts him on his heels as he moves, pulling his shoulders back off the release and making it harder to get the pads to the ice to close that five-hole. It was evident when Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar beat him clean between the legs in Game 5, though in that case the retreat was likely caused by preparing for a pass option to his right by flattening out the right pad closer to the goal line.

Low far side off rush: Shooting against the grain accounted for 22 goals in the regular season, above the 18.5 percent tracked average, and 6-of-14 in the first round, though two were tipped, but only 2-of-15 in the second round. A tendency to retreat, or drift, back in straight lines can cause him to flatten out and lose squareness as rushes move deeper into the zone, exposing more net far side. Starting out above the crease and retreating against the rush can also create vulnerability on east-west passes higher in the zone because being further out early increases the lateral distance he needs to cover.

Stuart Skinner

Edmonton Oilers

Skinner was excellent after the Oilers replaced coach Jay Woodcroft and assistant Dave Manson with Kris Knoblauch and Hall of Fame defenseman Paul Coffey on Nov. 12, and a big part of that was the team finally limiting the high-quality rush chances they were giving up far too often at the start of the season. Those types of plays go against Skinner’s biggest strengths, and the Stars have been a great rush team all season, so continuing to limit those chances, like they did against the Canucks, will be key for Edmonton. If not, there’s a chance Calvin Pickard could (below) could get into another series.

High glove? Maybe not: Skinner’s goal chart is remarkably balanced from glove to blocker side in both the regular season and playoffs, which shouldn’t be a surprise for such a technically sound goalie with conservative positioning, at least in-zone. The fact he gave up the most goals over his glove in the regular season doesn’t tell us enough because it’s not a save percentage. And while it seemed to be a preferred target dating back to last season’s tracking, it’s worth noting that the Canucks appeared to target low glove and low blocker on some of their clean-look goals, including Brock Boeser scoring one on each side in Game 3, and Conor Garland sparking a late rally with a low-blocker shot in Game 7.

Traffic, tips and chaos: Like Oettinger, after being average or slightly better in the regular season on scramble goals (17 compared to 14 percent tracked average) and screens (14 compared to 15.1 percent average), both numbers are up in the playoffs. Screens aren’t bad at 5-of-28 (17.9 percent), but 9-of-28 playoff goals have come after scrambles and broken plays (32.1 percent) that expose side-to-side recovery movement delays from his knees from having a narrower butterfly. Deflection goals were also up in the second round (4-of-15) after being a primary factor on just three tracked goals in the regular season and none in the first round, as deeper positioning can leave him prone to angle changes.

Early passes off the rush, down low in-zone: Skinner has done a great job narrowing his stance to make it easier to keep up with increasingly lateral attacks in the NHL, but getting that big frame square and set isn’t as easy as it might be for smaller goalies. So, it’s no surprise his goal chart includes more passes and plays across the middle (28 percent in the regular season, above the 22.1 average) and quick shots (47 percent, well above the 37.2 average). Where to make those passes depends on the type of play, however. On rush plays, lateral passes are more effective higher in the zone, which may seem counterintuitive, but there’s a tendency to either slide or pitch forward and get off balance coming across on these. On in-zone play, passes through the middle are more effective below the hash marks, especially if he squares up on the passers at or even outside his posts, creating a big lateral rotation that sometimes leaves him stuck.

Wait until widens: Skinner isn’t alone in this attribute in the NHL, but he can get caught in transition from the above-mentioned narrow stance when the puck is further from the net, to a lower, wider save stance. That lower stance inherently locks in the edges and makes lateral movement a lot harder, so fakes that can get him to commit to it before passing, like J.T. Miller did so well on a power play in Game 5 before passing cross-ice to Elias Pettersson, can leave him stranded, though it may have done the same to any goalie.

Calvin Pickard

Edmonton Oilers

Pickard took over for Skinner in Games 4 and 5 against the Canucks and gave the Oilers a chance to win both, winning the first before losing the second and, with it, the net back to Skinner. There were only 55 goals to track in the regular season and five in the playoffs, so the scouting report is abbreviated, but there were some trends worth noting.

High glove? Depends on situation: It’s hard to ignore the 20 above Pickard’s glove, which is 37.7 percent, way above the tracked average of 23.6, but it’s important to break down how they were scored. Vancouver scored 2-of-5 there in the second round, and both came behind screens. On clean looks, Pickard holds his glove up around his shoulder with his fingers pointing skyward, especially from further out, making a low-glove shot a more desirable target. The numbers back that up: Only four of the 20 high-glove goals came on clean shots compared to four of the six low-glove goals. It’s when Pickard has to move, whether side to side, shifting around a screen, low to high off his post, or even laterally on a breakaway that his glove tends to drop, creating more exposure up over the glove.

Low blocker: The numbers tell the correct story here: Pickard manages high blocker shots exceptionally well, making low blocker attempts a relatively better spot to target.

Low-high and lateral: Like Skinner, Pickard has a narrower butterfly, meaning when he’s down on his knees, his skates and pads are more behind him rather than spread out to the side as much as Oettinger. It creates delays moving side to side from the knees because he has to lift the push leg higher off the ice to establish an edge to move with, and can open up the five-hole, which we see Phillip Di Giuseppe exploit with a spin move from the top of the crease in Game 5. It also forces him to make more of a bump move off his post at times on lateral plays behind the net or across the front of his crease from sharp angles; plays like that accounted for 17 of his regular season goals (32.1 percent), which is almost twice the tracked average of 17.1 percent, including eight of the high-glove goals.

Rebounds: Those same attributes force Pickard to reach on low laterals rather than getting his body across but he’s got a high battle level and great instincts and reactions, so it’s important to never count him out on making a spectacular stop. But if he’s reaching, that means he doesn’t have full coverage on second chances after those saves, making it important to stop around the net because 10-of-53 regular-season goals came on rebounds (18.9 percent), above the 11.7 percent average. The Miller game-winner with 33 seconds left in Game 5 is a good example, even though it was a really tough chance.