Segment Seven: Yes, I know. There’s still one game left in Segment 61-70 for the Lightning. But given that Games 70 and 71 (in LA and Anaheim) will take place on consecutive days, I’m recapping the segment today.
The Lightning have already eclipsed 12 points in the segment, so it has been a successful one. They entered Segment Seven three points off playoff pace — a pace that would allow them to reach 96 points after 80 games. With a record of 6-2-1 through the first nine games, they’ve banked 13 points and are up to 82 points. A win on Saturday against the Kings would get them back on playoff pace for the first time all season. (They finished Segment One with 11 points.) Even if they don’t pick up points in the LA game, it’s been a terrific segment for the Lightning: they’ve maintained their hold on a Wildcard spot even as other teams behind them in the standings made up games in hand.
The 96-point threshold has been a reliable one in determining playoff qualification. The 96-in-80 pace affords teams to add to their total in the final two games of the regular season. But usually, 96 after 82 games is enough to secure a postseason berth. The Lightning have 13 games left in the regular season — in other words, there are 26 available points. They are 14 points away from reaching 96. Meaning they need to keep ‘munching points,’ as Jon Cooper likes to say.
But the teams behind the Lightning have a steeper path to 96. The Red Wings need 18 points out of 24 available. The Capitals need 21 out of 28. The Flyers, in third in the Metropolitan but behind the Lightning in the Conference standings, need 17 out of 24.
Winning Streaks: Prior to their win against San Jose on Thursday, Cooper was asked about the reasons for his team’s winning streak (now at five games). He responded that there have been two important components: they’ve had the lead in most of the games, and their special-teams play has been strong. Those trends continued in the game against the Sharks. The Lightning never trailed, and they scored the eventual game-winning goal on the power play early in the third period.
Over the course of the winning streak, the Lightning have only trailed in two of those games. The first of those was on March 14 against the Rangers. But as Cooper noted, that was an early deficit, so they had time to rally (which they did). Later in the same contest, they fell behind, 3-2. But they tied the game soon after and eventually grabbed the lead. The second instance was on Tuesday in Vegas. They yielded an early goal to the Golden Knights, but the deficit was short-lived.
As for special-teams play, the Lightning have netted seven power-play goals during their winning streak and allowed only one opposition PPG. They did give up one shorthanded goal but have tallied a shorthanded goal themselves.
Playing with the lead has been a factor in another category: road wins. The Lightning have gone 7-1-0 in their last eight road games, dating back to February 10. They’ve had road winning streaks of four and (now) three games. In those six of those seven victories, they never trailed. The other win came in the aforementioned Vegas game. Thanks to the 7-1-0 stretch, they have improved their road record to 17-16-2.
The Hart Race: In last month’s Musings column, I looked at the race for the Art Ross Trophy, which is awarded to the player with the most regular season points. There is no debate over the winner of that trophy: a player’s point total is the determining factor.
On the other hand, the Hart Trophy, which is given to the league’s regular season MVP, can be open to debate. That’s because members of the PHWA (Professional Hockey Writers’ Association) vote on it. Writers list their top five candidates, and points are awarded on a 10-7-5-3-1 basis.
There seems to be a consensus that four worthy candidates will appear on most — if not all — ballots: Nikita Kucherov, Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid, and Auston Matthews. Kucherov and MacKinnon have been leading the points race nearly all season. McDavid isn’t far behind — and he may end up leading the league in assists. While Matthews is well back of those other three players in points, he will easily win the Rocket Richard Trophy as the league’s top goal scorer. Matthews has a chance to reach 70 goals.
But there is little consensus on who should win it. So how the writers rank their choices may tip the balance. It’s possible that the eventual Hart winner will not be the candidate receiving the most first-place votes. But he will have gotten the most combined votes for first and second place.
