Congratulations to the Lightning, who have clinched their eighth consecutive playoff berth. They’ve now qualified for the postseason in 11 of the last 12 seasons.
Recently, Jon Cooper was asked about the significance of having home-ice advantage in the opening round. This has become a storyline due to the closeness of the Atlantic Division race. Finishing in first or second would give the Lightning home ice in their opening-round series.
Based on their regular season home/road split, the Lightning would seem to benefit from having that advantage. Tampa Bay is 27-8-2 at home and 17-18-3 on the road. Statistically, what has been the difference? It has not been their goal production. The Lightning have scored plenty both at home and on the road. Prior to Saturday’s action, the Lightning rank first at home in goals scored per game (3.84) and fifth on the road (3.29). But defensively, it’s been a different story. The Lightning are third at home (2.14 ga/g) but tied for 17th on the road (3.08 ga/g).
Simply put, the Lightning have not defended as well on the road as they have at home. That’s why their home record is so much better than the road one. But how much does this tell us about what might happen in a playoff series?
Certainly, playoff games require teams to play at a much higher level than they did in the regular season. But in some ways, playing on the road in a playoff series is less taxing than it is during the grind of a long regular season. The travel is limited to two locations. Back-to-backs, which frequently occur in the regular season, are rare in the postseason. And if they occur, both teams are on equal footing.
During the Jon Cooper era, there have been years in which the Lightning’s regular season home/road record was not predictive of how things went in the playoffs. In the 2014-15 regular season, they went 32-8-1 at home and 18-16-7 on the road. In advancing to the Stanley Cup Final that year, they went just 6-7 at home and 8-5 on the road. In 2022-23, the Lightning posted a home record of 28-8-5 and a road mark of 18-22-1. In their first-round loss to Toronto, however, they won two of three on the road and dropped all three at home.
Cooper’s response to this question about the importance of home ice has been consistent through the years. He says that home ice becomes an advantage if a series reaches the seventh game. He adds correctly that his teams have won series when they’ve been the lower seed and lost series when they’ve had home ice.
All of that is true. But Cooper always mentions that he’d prefer to have home ice. Whether it happens this year is contingent on how well the Lightning play in their final seven regular season games, especially in their remaining head-to-head contests against Toronto and Florida.
