Analytics with Alison: Exceeding Expectations

As Seattle assembled its inaugural roster, a big topic of discussion was "who would take advantage of a new opportunity with a new team?" With a whole new roster, many players would have the chance to take on a new role, more minutes, a fresh start. It was up to each of them to make the most of that.
When it comes to offensive production, if we want to look at who has stepped up, of course we can look at goals and total points. But if we want to take that one step further, we can compare those numbers to how much offense each player was expected to generate based on their overall shot quality (individual expected goals).

Who has exceeded expectations the most?
Let's dig in.

1. JARED MCCANN

Individual Expected Goals:7.48
Actual Goals Scored:14
Differential:Plus-6.52
The Opportunity: Jared McCann came to Seattle and has found himself playing top-line minutes along with significant time on the power play. His 12:34 per game (5-on-5) is just seconds behind the career high of 12:42 he saw in Pittsburgh in the 2018-19 season.
The Results: McCann currently leads the Kraken in goals (14) and is second in overall points (21). His 1.86 goals per 60 minutes of play (all situations) marks a career high and his 2.78 points per 60 his second best performance in seven years of NHL play. Bolstered by some insane finishing ability (McCann is rocking a 17.72 shooting percentage), McCann has exceeded his projected goal scoring more than any other Kraken skater thus far this season.
"I've been given a great opportunity here in Seattle," McCann said. "It's been awesome. I'm playing with great players. I have to give a lot of credit to my teammates and guys giving it to me."

2. JORDAN EBERLE

Individual Expected Goals: 7.75
Actual Goals: 12
Differential: Plus-4.25
The Opportunity: Eberle joined Seattle as one of the players expected to make a difference offensively. He's held down his top-line role playing 14:25 a game (5-on-5) which is in line with career averages, and is seeing the most power play time he's had in the past three seasons (2:49 per game).
The Results: With 23 points, Eberle leads all Seattle players, and he's done it with the second best goal scoring rate of his career (1.24 per 60 minutes of play). Eberle was already considered a top finisher in the league and now at 31 years old, Eberle is experiencing another peak in that ability.

3. CARSON SOUCY

Individual Expected Goals: 1.63
Actual Goals: 4
Differential: Plus-2.37
The Opportunity: Playing in Seattle has meant seeing the highest time on ice per game of Soucy's career in 5-on-5 play. His 15:22 is more than a minute greater than his previous career high.
The Results: Soucy is using the extra ice time to his advantage. He's shooting the puck more (5.23 shots per 60 minutes of play) and his 1.31 points per 60 is pretty comparable to his previous career high of 1.33 that he achieved last season in Minnesota. It's also worth noting that Soucy's primary assist rate is at its highest level with .65 per 60 in all situations.

4. YANNI GOURDE

Individual Expected Goals: 5.93
Actual Goals: 8
Differential: Plus-2.07
The Opportunity: Gourde was another player earmarked to be a big part of the Kraken identity. With Seattle, Gourde's ice time in 5-on-5 play is the most of his seven years in the NHL, exceeding his previous career high by more than two minutes per game (14:51). The center is also being relied on as part of both special-teams units.
The Results: Gourde is generating just under one goal per 60 minutes of play, it's not a career high, but it's close, and his shooting percentage, while high (16.67) is only the third-best of his career. Where Gourde has really excelled is in feeding his teammates for goals. His 1.46 assists per 60 minutes of play (all situations) is second only to what he produced in the 2017-18 campaign (1.77 assists per 60). The center is also producing just as many primary assists as he is goals per 60 minutes of play.

5. COLIN BLACKWELL

Individual Expected Goals: 1.21
Actual Goals: 3
Differential: Plus-1.79
The Opportunity: Blackwell's window of opportunity may just be opening in Seattle. Due to injury, he's played in just 12 games this season seeing similar ice time to what he's experienced thus far in the NHL (10:35 at 5-on-5 per game). But just as a new team provides opportunity, injury to other Kraken players has broadened the openings to players who want to step up and Blackwell has looked to make the most of that.
The Results: Blackwell is still shooting pretty much the same amount and generating similar quality as he has across his four seasons in the league, but he saw his finishing ability start to improve with the Rangers last year and it's at a career high right now. As a result, Blackwell's points (2.62) and goals (1.31) per 60 minutes of play are at a career high.

All data via Evolving-Hockey.com and NaturalStatTrick.com