Analytics with Alison: Powering Forward

There was a slightly new look to the Kraken power play the last two games. When Seattle gained a two-player advantage to play 5-on-3, Dave Hakstol and the coaching staff deployed a five-forward power-play unit, as opposed to the more prominent one defender-four forward option.
"When you're in that situation, it makes sense," Hakstol said after the game against Vancouver. "When you're looking at that manpower situation, Vince Dunn is out of the lineup, that was our best group of five."

This wasn't the very first time Seattle had put out five forwards on the power play (per Sportlogiq it had happened already for 3.5 minutes through March of this season), but it was one of the most noticeable. So,
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, we wanted to look into this new trend that has been popping up around the league and see who is using it, how it's working, and what results the Kraken have had.
Let's dig in.
First and foremost, it's important to remember that this five-forward look isn't yet exactly commonplace in the NHL. So, anything we look at statistically is coming from a very small sample size. But that being said, per Sportlogiq as of March 29, all but two NHL teams (Anaheim, Dallas) have used five forwards on the power play at some point this season. If we look at how much this happens as a percentage of total power-play time, Chicago, Columbus and Florida have done it the most. Ottawa, Boston, and San Jose have used it the least.
To evaluate which teams are most successful, we looked at the percent of shot quality generated for versus the percent of shot quality allowed against. Over half the league, (17 teams, including Seattle), have generated 100 percent of the shot quality when playing an all-forward power play.
But, an "all offense" power play isn't necessarily a guaranteed success. Four teams (Vegas, Colorado, Winnipeg and Toronto) have below 50 percent of all shot quality when using this deployment and Carolina just clears that bar at 53.16 percent. Two more teams (Detroit, Tampa Bay) come in earning between 70 and 60 percent of all shot quality. In fact, as a result of their analysis, Sportlogiq's Kenny Matheson said that league-wide, there's been a drop in getting the advantage in shot quality with five forwards on the ice.
So, back to Seattle using five forwards the last two games. Over the past two games, the Kraken put out five forwards on the power play for 4:24 of time when the opponent had just three skaters on the penalty kill.
The primary unit was Yanni Gourde, Jordan Eberle, Daniel Sprong, Jared McCann and Matty Beniers, with Alex Wennberg and Karson Kuhlman also seeing time. These players won all six of the faceoffs they were involved in and generated 12 shots on goal out of 18 shot attempts total. That offensive effort was enough to equal 2.34 expected goals. While the Kraken didn't score on the five-on-three, they still had five forwards on the ice as the second two-man advantage expired in Vancouver. One second after the Canucks got one skater back, Eberle put the puck in the net off an attack that involved precision passing by every Seattle skater on the ice.

Again, it's important to remember that we're looking at a very small sample of data. And different teams may be considering different factors when deploying five forwards on the power play. For example, Seattle has gone to this look recently when they've gained a two-skater advantage.
So, while we may see this strategy popping up throughout the league, overall, as Matheson noted, going with five forwards will up your offensive volume, but it will also put you at higher risk for offense against (you don't have any true "defenders" on the ice, obviously). Five forwards is an option for coaching staffs to consider, but it's still likely best used after considering how much a goal for is potentially worth versus getting scored on instead.