Hakstol is right. Plenty of coaches at all levels of the game pull their goaltender to try to get a tying score. A study by Meghan Hall revealed that from the 2013-14 season through the 2019-20 season,
when a team was trailing in the final two minutes, they pulled their goaltender 98% of the time
! After all, in the NHL, even if a last-minute goal only earns you a tie, your team earns one standings point, and that is better than gaining none in a loss.
But to some it may feel like a crazy exercise to pull the goaltender - after all, you're leaving your net wide open making it that much easier for your opponent to score and that's not good, right? Well, not necessarily.
Let's dig in.
Just like we talked about when discussing
pushing to protect a third period lead
, coaching decisions (and player decisions, for that matter!) are all about calculated risk. That's no different when we think about pulling a goaltender. And when it comes to evaluating risk-reward, a team gains a lot more by potentially scoring a tying goal late (a standings point) than they do in allowing a goal against when they are already trailing (a loss is a loss).
So, how does it work?
Going back to Hall's study
, we know the average time remaining in a game when a team pulls the goaltender when down one goal has slowing inched up from 73 seconds in the 2013-14 season, to 97 seconds in the 2020-21 season after achieving a recent high of 106 seconds in the 2019-20 season. Part of the reasoning is that it's been statistically shown that the more time you give your team to score, the more likely they are to do it. In fact,
research suggests
a trailing team should
pull their goaltender with six minutes to play
!
Hakstol is aware of this philosophy and balances that understanding with the necessity to factor in if the players he wants to play in an empty net situation are ready to go (not already on the ice finishing a shift, or just off the ice needing to get ready for the next shift), and just as important for him, the feel of the game matters.
"I think you've seen a real trend over the last few years of the goaltender pull being earlier rather than later," Hakstol said. "There's a reason for that, statistically speaking, you know you have more success when you take your goaltender out earlier."
So, we know teams pull their goaltenders and that they are doing it earlier and earlier, but does it actually deliver results? Hall's research tells us that in the 2020-21 season, teams down one goal who pulled their goaltender scored at least one goal 18.1% of the time. In the 2019-20 season, teams down any number of goals who pulled their goaltender scored 8.7% of the time.
That kind of risk versus return ratio is one that coaches have shown time and time again that they believe is worth it. While it may seem chaotic, putting out six skaters to fight for a possible standings point late in the game is intentional and can definitely pay off, it just has to be at the right time.
"It really depends on the situation in terms of timing," Hakstol said. "Player availability, all of those things come into play (to) know when it's the right time to get (the goalie) out of the net and go six on five."
