One: Take some shots – This one was the equivalent of an empty netter, given recent events. The Kraken are full value for their 11-5-6 record overall but dead last in the NHL with just 24.1 shots per game. As head coach Lane Lambert said again after practice on Tuesday: “We need some more offense.”
Lambert could get some as soon as Wednesday night as Jared McCann practiced with the power play unit in morning skate and looks about ready to return for the first time in 5 ½ weeks.
Remember, McCann played only five games with no preseason at all before going down with a lower body injury. Lambert said after morning skate he’ll see how McCann feels later in the day but that things were trending in a positive direction as to him playing.
Not only that, but Kaapo Kakko may not be all that far behind.
Kakko partook in the morning skate wearing a red no-contact jersey which Lambert indicated afterwards was a sign he’s progressing towards a return.
In any event, Lambert has made it abundantly clear he’s tired of telling his players a hundred different versions of them needing to shoot more. There have been public Lambert musings about how they can’t score if they don’t shoot. And how you need shot volume before you worry about shot quality. Not much left to say.
The Kraken as of Tuesday were dead last in the league in expected goals for at 59.87 this season according to MoneyPuck. That isn’t surprising given they are last in shots and if you don’t shoot, you can’t score, or so it’s been rumored.
Emerald City Hockey co-founder RJ Eskanos asked Lambert after practice whether he puts stock in advanced stats. Lambert gave a long, detailed answer with the usual caveats about how proprietary team analytics often differ from public models in that they can be tailored to finding exactly what coaches look for and need.
But then he also added that while proprietary team models “are not altogether aligned” with what the public sees, it’s worth remembering that: “At the end of the day there are trends and you have to pay attention to both.”
The common trends in this case? A good bet it’s that the Kraken need to shoot the puck more.
Two: Play them tight – The Kraken haven’t beaten the Stars in the regular season since March 21, 2023 in a 5-4 win on Adam Larsson’s overtime breakaway goal. They haven’t beaten the Stars at home since April 3, 2022 and that was four seasons ago.
Sure, the Kraken did beat Dallas three times in the 2023 playoffs and two of those games were even played at Climate Pledge Arena. But we’re talking regular season now and it’s been seven consecutive defeats for the Kraken since that Larsson overtime winner.
A commonality in those games? The Kraken have scored one goal or fewer in six straight games against the Stars. They’ve been outscored 18-4 over that span. Yikes! Guess they’d better shoot the puck this time.
That said, despite the Kraken going just 2-9-2 all-time against Dallas in regular season play, the games have hardly been one-sided. Three of the games have gone to overtime, five have been decided by just one goal, four more games saw empty net goals with netminders pulled for extra attackers and two additional games were decided by two goals with no empty netters. So, that’s 11 of 13 contests that were pretty tight in the third period.
And that’s the way the Kraken need to play it. They’ve already seen 16 of 22 games decided by two goals or fewer, with 13 of those being one-goal affairs. Despite their dominance of the Kraken, the Stars have scored three goals or fewer in five of the last six games between the teams – including a 2-1 loss at Dallas just a couple of weekends ago.
The Kraken are 10-1-3 this season when allowing no more than three goals against. So, the math is pretty good on that end. Their issue will be scoring more than one or two times.
Three: Know the foe – The Kraken know all they need to about the Stars, namely that it hasn’t been great when it comes to head-to-head results. The good news is they’ll be getting the Stars on the latter end of back-to-back games after they demolished the Oilers 8-3 in Edmonton on Tuesday night.
They also won’t have to face standout defender Thomas Harley, still out with a lower body injury suffered mid-month. The Stars are already missing forward Matt Duchene, out since mid-October with an upper body injury.
That said, the Stars still have a dangerous offense that after Tuesday’s game was fifth best in the league at 3.39 goals per game. Combine that with being eighth best defensively at 2.74 goals allowed per contest and you can see why Dallas is 14-5-4 with the NHL’s second most points at 32 behind only Colorado.
Not surprisingly, you have Jason Robertson leading the team with 14 goals and 31 points. Robertson, Mikko Rantanen and Wyatt Johnston have all hit or surpassed the 10-goal mark, whereas Jaden Schwartz and Jordan Eberle are the Kraken’s high-scorers at eight apiece. Even less surprising, all that firepower gives the Stars one heck of a power play, which entered Tuesday leading the league with 25 goals with a man advantage and sitting second in efficiency at 29.6% after scoring three more times against Edmonton. So, yeah the Kraken need to stay out of the box.
Miro Heiskanen, of course, is also a dual threat as a defender, sitting fourth in points at 20 courtesy of 17 assists – tied with Robertson for most on the team.
Casey DeSmith may be Jake Oettinger’s backup, but he’s never lost to the Kraken as a member of the Stars, beating them the last three times out including this month. He’s allowed just two goals in those three games. Throwing in his prior stats with Pittsburgh, DeSmith is 4-1-0 against the Kraken and has allowed only five goals in those five games with a .967 save percentage. With Oettinger getting the Tuesday night start in Edmonton, the Kraken likely will have to solve DeSmith yet again.
Projected Lines (Not official):
Marchment-Beniers-Eberle
Schwartz-Stephenson-Tolvanen
McCann-Catton-Wright
Kartye-Gaudreau-Winterton
Dunn-Larsson
Lindgren-Montour
Evans-Oleksiak
Daccord
