As mentioned, Montreal has the fifth-best odds (8.5%) of winning the opening lottery, which would award the Canadiens the first-overall pick in 2024.
If another team wins the lottery, the Habs can still get the second-overall pick in the second draw... unless Philly has already locked it up.
In this scenario, the Philadelphia Flyers, who sit 12th with 2.5% odds in the Draft Lottery rankings, would need to win the first lottery and jump the maximum-allowed 10 spots to No. 2. The vacant first-overall spot would then automatically go to the San Jose Sharks, who have the best chance of winning this year's NHL Draft sweepstakes. If the Canadiens then win the second draw, the third selection would be theirs as picks 1 and 2 would already be accounted for.
It's highly improbable (and confusing), but there's still a chance (0.3%, to be precise).
The odds will be reset for each team heading into both draws.
Moving outside of the coveted Top 3, the Canadiens cannot obtain the fourth-overall pick. Montreal can only improve on its current fifth spot by winning one of the two lotteries, which would move them into positions 1, 2 or 3 as explained above, but never 4.
Lastly, Montreal can drop no lower than two spots, so the team's first pick will be somewhere between first and seventh overall (excluding fourth). One or two teams with lower odds than the Canadiens would need to win one or both lotteries to push Montreal to sixth or seventh. Once the top two lottery spots are determined, the rest of the field falls into order based on the final regular season standings.
Although the Canadiens hold the fifth-best odds to win the lottery, the team's highest odds are to draft sixth-overall.
And don't forget: the Habs own another first-round pick acquired in the trade that sent forward Sean Monahan to the Winnipeg Jets on Feb. 2. The placement of that selection will depend on regular season standings and playoff results.
The final draft order for all 32 teams will be completed as the postseason plays out.
Got it all? Now put your statistical expertise to the test with the Canadiens' official Draft Lottery Simulator for a chance to win a Canadiens cap signed by Juraj Slafkovsky and Filip Mesar!
