With a break in the schedule, 12 games played and 70 to go, now seems like the perfect time to evaluate where the Blue Jackets are in the 2024-25 season.
There have been some bright spots – including a historic start in the goal-scoring department, plus a 3-0-1 stretch that included victories over consistent playoff teams Toronto, Edmonton and the New York Islanders – and some frustration, such as the weekend’s pair of losses to red-hot Winnipeg and Washington teams.
Add it all up and the Blue Jackets are 5-5-2, a point-per-game pace that would leave the team short of a postseason berth but would also be a massive improvement on the past two seasons.
When Columbus was in the midst of its four-game point streak, head coach Dean Evason noted two things that continue to be true – there have been bright spots, but there’s still plenty of work to do on a night-in, night-out basis.
“It’s such a competitive league,” Evason said. “You have to compete every night and hopefully you can get your share of two points. To get off to a good start, sure, it’s great, and it’s also great to get that thought process that we can rebound after games, that the leadership is strong in there, that they’re saying and preparing the right way to play that next game regardless of what happens.
“We talk about where, when and who we play, it doesn’t matter. We just play the same way, and so far we’ve been able to do that.”
There have been some hiccups along the way, but the Blue Jackets have shown signs of being a fun team to watch through the first 12 games.
We’ll take a look at three good signs for the team so far, followed by a couple of areas the Blue Jackets can seek to improve.
What’s Working So Far
1. Improved structure: The eye test shows the Blue Jackets have been much better at getting out of their defensive zone and then getting on transition to try to create offense, which Evason has preached as the way you have to play in the modern NHL.
The numbers show that as well. A season ago, per MoneyPuck.com, the Blue Jackets allowed 2.95 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. (Expected goals is a measure of shot quantity and shot quality.) This year, so far the team has allowed 2.63 xG per 60, showing an improvement in not allowing teams to set up and create offense.
There are always going to be situations where a team gets stuck in its own end, but it’s happening a lot less frequently this season to the Blue Jackets than in years past.
“I think we’ve done well defensively in our end, so it allows us to play offense,” Zach Werenski said. “We’ve closed down plays quickly. We’ve broken the puck out really clean. That just allows you to jump up and play offense.”
2. Youngsters stepping up: A lot of that offense has come from the continued steps made by the talented young offensive players the Blue Jackets have drafted and worked into the lineup in recent years.
Though the offensive spigot has dried up a bit the past few games, the Blue Jackets got off to a franchise-best start at putting the puck in the net, and the team’s 40 goals through 12 games remains the second-most in team history.
Now in his third NHL season, Kirill Marchenko leads the way with five goals and 13 points, a pace that would allow him to challenge Artemi Panarin’s team record for points in a season. In year four of his NHL career, Yegor Chinakhov has three goals and nine points to tie for third in team scoring, while fellow fourth-year player Cole Sillinger is fifth on the team with eight points. Adam Fantilli has added six points, while fellow Michigan product Kent Johnson had five points in four games before suffering an upper-body injury.
There will be ebbs and flows throughout the season for young players, but there have been encouraging signs they’re working to become more consistent scorers.
“We’ve got a great mix of young guys who are willing to learn and getting better each and every night,” Damon Severson said. “You can see the growth. It was very evident in training camp this year they’re doing the right things. Sometimes it’s not that fun to do the right things because some of these guys have been skilled players their whole lives, but they’re buying in and doing the things that are necessary for us to win hockey games.”
3. Unity and belief: Evason has spoken at length about the close nature of the squad since his arrival, and the Blue Jackets have shown that throughout the season thus far.
While things haven’t been perfect, they’ve responded well to adversity and clearly bought in to what the coaching staff is preaching. And there’s an added element of togetherness – brought on by a couple years of playing together and boosted by off-ice events – that has allowed the team to build some confidence and belief so far.
“I think it’s a group that wants to win,” said veteran Sean Monahan, who has helped stabilize the lineup and added 11 points. “I have a feeling this group wants to be in the hunt.”
Added Cole Sillinger: “We’ve set the bar for ourselves. We know what we need to do to play well and win hockey games. It’s just a matter of trying to be consistent and holding each other accountable to that.”
What Needs Improvement
1. Consistency: As Sillinger noted, the biggest key to a long NHL season is consistency, and the Blue Jackets learned that lesson over the weekend.
In back-to-back losses to Winnipeg and Washington teams that got off to hot starts, Columbus was outscored 13-4 and took a pair of losses to end their point streak. While there was an element of tipping your hat to the opposition, the Blue Jackets also learned a lesson – when playing against the NHL’s best, they have to be on their game or things can go south quickly.
“I think it exposes what happens when you’re not playing your game and not playing hard enough,” Werenski said. “We’ll learn from it.”
Columbus did just that, playing with pace and speed and putting 50 shots on goal in Tuesday’s overtime loss at San Jose. While there was frustration at not being able to finish and get the two points, it was another sign the team is learning through adversity.
To Evason, that’s part of the process for any team during an NHL season, especially one as young as the Jackets still are.
“There’s your consistency, right?” Evason said when asked if this was part of the natural growth for a team. “I’m not just saying consistency in how we play, it’s consistency in how we think, how we handle situations and how we move forward. It’s a process, and we’re going through it right now.”
2. Clean up around the net: We did say the Blue Jackets have gotten better defensively, and it is true. But a look at some numbers shows Columbus has some areas of improvement to work on.
Per MoneyPuck, the Blue Jackets are 21st in the NHL in expected goal differential at 5-on-5, and the team’s mark of 2.63 expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 is 24th in the NHL. Again, that’s a major improvement from a year ago, but still not among the elite marks in the league.
Per Natural Stat Trick, the Blue Jackets have had 46.5 percent of the high-danger scoring chances at 5-on-5 this season, which places 24th in the NHL.
While the Blue Jackets are around league average in shot share and scoring chances, they need to improve a tad on not giving up chances around the net, but that also could be part of implementing and adjusting to a new system.
